Weather is becoming very active here in the region, and though it might not seem like much it really is (for those of you who read the Bouncing Ball analogy). This system is sort of the season changer right now, so its presense shall be admired. Here is what is happening now:Looking first at the radar, rain showers and drizzle all about the region this evening and they are working their way into the BUffalo area as I type. Temperatures a little chilly, down in the upper 30's for most of us right now, and considering the system it is a little chilly. Low pressure centre will continue to deepen throughout the night with the centre locating itself right now down in Cincinnati, it will evetually phase itself into lower Michigan with a different low (this part is hard to explain) and that is going to allow for the precip to remain in the region. Heading over to the Plains, we're seeing our upper level trough moving throught the northern Plains right now at a modest speed and it is well defined at both the 500-mb and 300-mb levels. Noticing a good jet streak of about 100-kts over the central Plains right now, that is going to be monitored. Upper level low making its way through Kentucky this evening and that is starting to become absorbed back into the upper level trough and its flow. 2-hour pressure change indicates that this Texas low will mainly move towards the Pennsylvania area with the rest of its energy moving into lower Michigan later tonight. Upper level trough in the Plains will help to enhance this surface low pressure. Big interest right now goes to the 850-mb temperature advection where undoubtly cold air is filling on the backside of this trough - which will head towards the region. The cold front that I am watching is very well defined and developed, with a good and noticable temperature drop with it. For example, 29° in Kansas City, whereas St. Louis is at 45°.
Just for a fun weather fact before we continue, to get an idea of how cold it will not get. On this day in 2002, the Russian research base in Vostok, Antarctica reported a record high of 10° (Vostok is the coldest place in the world with a low of -128.6° set in July of 1983). It won't be getting that chilly in the region, though I might be keeping an eye on the possibilty of some places getting to 10° for an overnight low on Friday night. Also, right now, it is cooler in the Texas panhandle than it is here. That just shows how the weather is playing games right now.
Tomorrow, we'll start off with rain showers in the region, mainly before noon in the region, then we're going to watch a cold front get thrusted into the region. This cold front is going to quickly drop temperatures in the western half of the region by tomorrow evening.
Tomorrow evening, With the initial drop in temperatures associated with sunset, we're going to watch the temperatures quickly drop in the region for an overnight low tomorrow into the mid teens for some. This isn't going to come calmly however. Some moisture caught in with the approaching trough of low pressure is going to be enough that we're going to watch some snow showers start to develop in the western half of the region. These snow showers will actually be decent, and they will gradually begin to fill into the eastern half of the region by late Thursday night/Friday morning. But for the western half of the region, if all continues to go to plan, we're going to see about 1-3 inches of snow (I might be bumping that up in a little bit) overnight in the western half of the region. Now this isn't going to just come with cooler temperaures. With the sharp influx of chillier air from the north (not to mention some sharp gradients and the angle of turn the winds will have to make) and we're going to see some gusty winds develop overnight and into Friday morning. All through the day the night this low pressure in southern Michigan will continue to deepen. Now it isn't going to move much because the upper level trough will not have really arrived quite yet (though it will be close enough to see most of the effects). This will allow for a continuous pull of cool air, mixing with moisture and other ingredients, in allowing for those snow showers to continue in th region.
(GFS look at Thursday evening).Friday, do not think the excitment ends there, because we're going to see more snow. The upper trough from the Plains will finally catch up to the low in Michigan and it will begin to push it. This low pressure will start to drag the snow showers with it, however the fun will have only begun in the eastern half of the region. Tempertures that are much cooler than the lake waters, mixed with lift, moisture and a 16°C difference between surface and 850-mb along with a nice flow of winds over the lake to help enhance lift, will allow for none other than...lake effect now showers. In fact, the same thing will happen over Lake Michigan which will be partially responsible for the snow in the western half of the region as well. Upper level low coming from the upper trough in the Plains will pass over the region, allowing for daytime highs to struggle to get above the mid 20's...possibly not even out of the lower 20's. Now there will be some additional snow accumulation in the western half of the region, about an inch, and the majority of that will happen in the morning for the western half of the region. The eastern half of the region will just begin to see their snow accumulate because remember, that rain will not fully switch over until early Friday morning...or at the earliest late Thursday night (towards sunrise).
Snow showers will start to taper in the western half of the region, but then another quick wave of low pressure will slide down, possibly introducing light snow showers and flurries into the region. Eastern half of the region is still going to be holding onto the snow showers with the lake.
So over the next 24 to 36-hours the weather is going to be changing and what we're seeing now wont necessarily be around this time tomorrow. I'll have full updates coming up for you all starting tomorrow morning at 4.30 a.m. so make sure that you check back for updates on that. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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