GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

09 January 2012

Evening Post

This post is going to mainly focus on the weather for Thursday through Friday.

Right now, here is our Texas low pressure that will effect us on Wednesday.

Now the rest of this post is actually going to focus on the northern low and its trough that will effect the region.

Thursday, this is when the weather in the region becomes more winter like in the region as a cold front will make its way into the region. At this time we're going to see our northern low pressure begin to pass by the region - staying to the north - but this will have that good trailing cold front with it. In the eastern half of the region during the morning, we're still going to be seeing the effects of the Texas low pressure which at this point will still have some spotty rain showers over in that area. Highs on Thursday for the western half of the region will mainly occur in the morning, possibly hanging out in the 30's, however by the afternoon those temperatures are going to fall into the lower 30's. The eastern half of the region will have the typical diurnal highs, though some of the areas like Cleveland might start to see a drop in the mid afternoon. More work on that will be given. The main focus however will be the snow showers that will develop in the western half of the region. The upper level trough is going to be digging into the northern Plains and heading towards the Great Lakes region during the course of tomorrow morning, and this will allow for some moisture to develop in the southeastern half of the trough which will precipitate in the form of snow showers. With the dropping temperatures in the western half of the region during this time, and the influx of the cool air in the 850-mb levels, I went ahead and gave Fort Wayne a complimentary inch of snow accumulation during the course of the day, I am still holding off on giving it Toledo as well, but I am thinking I will do so tomorrow morning. Thursday afternoon in the eastern half of the region, the front will have finally arrived and that is going to change those rain showers fully into snow showers. Behind this front, again, noticing a good influx of cool air from the Plains.

Thursday night, looking at those temperatures to continue to drop across the region, possibly dipping down into the teens for overnight lows. The low pressure in the north will hang around as the upper level trough develops a closed upper low that will begin to enter the region. Looking at scattered snow showers to be out and about during this time as well. Looking at the 1000-500-mb heights, the region is going to be in the range of 540-mb to 510-mbs and this is going to mean that cooler air is going to enter the region. With the approachment of the centre of the upper level low into the region, we're going to watch the snow showers in the western half of the region start to taper down a little bit, but not before a lake effect snow event begins to develop in the eastern half of the region.

Friday, The centre of that upper level low pressure from the Plains (to specify, remember the Texas low will be out of the region, so this update is mainly focusing on the low pressure and trough from the Plains) and this is going to have enough cool air, gusty winds and moisture to do none other than: lake effect snow showers in the region. How much snow that will fall in the eastern half of the region is still up for debate at this point, tomorrow morning I will start putting some snow fall accumulations on it, but for now we can expect a few inches nonetheless. Still expecting that the 1000-500-mb range will between 540 and 510 during this time as well, so again I am going to go with some cooler temperatures. To confirm this, the CPC does have the entire forecast area under average during this time,

so for a little bit it looks like this system has finally broken that warm pattern we've been stuck with.

For the remainder of the forecast period, things are going to be still a few degrees below average, and there is a chance that we could have another - although weaker - system approach the region over the weekend and possibly give us some more snow showers. I'll type more about this in the morning. I'll have forecast revisions and post coming up tomorrow morning, starting at 4.30 a.m., but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have themf or you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.