No major changes needed to the forecasts this evening. I did a little adjustments with the timing in the long term forecast, but I did leave the temperatures alone. I will make this update brief, as nothing much has really changed in my synopsis since I last updated you all at 6.30 this morning. So lets go over briefly what will happen in the region over the next couple of days:
Upper level trough is going to be moving through the region tomorrow and that will keep some clouds in the region, but nothing much. The trough really isn't going to be that strong and we're seeing it right now (hence the clouds in the region) and this is going to work in keeping the temperatures rather cool over the next two days.
Upper level trough will become elongated and pull out of the region, allowing for a closed low to develop down in Texas on Monday afternoon. This closed low will take its time developing a surface low not too far away and together they are both going to head towards the region - or so it will appear.
On Tuessday, warm advection is going to enter the region from a high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and this is going to push those temperatures back up to above normal temperatures as this low pressure from the southern Plains heads towards the region. At the same time, a high pressure is going to grad our attention in British Columbia and this is going to be one to keep an eye on because it will slide into the Rockies later on Tuesday.
On Tuesday night and upper level trough is going to develop, causing a surface low pressure to develop and form in the northern Plains/lower Canada and this is going to have a trailing cold front and a warm front with it. The effects of the warm front will be felt as early as Tuesday evening throughout the region. The exact passage of the warm - or if it happens - is a little questionable, regardless it will not effect the forecas that much because the ridge will take care of the temperatures.
Wednesday, the upper level trough becomes really noticable as that high pressure pushes into the Rockies, the northern Low pressure cruises towards the northern Lakes and the southern low pressure moves up through the Ozarks. Warm advection really begins to take place on Wednesday as that trough in the western Plains becomes sharp and the two low pressure head towards the region. The northern Low pressure will have its cold front crossing through the Plains during the day Wednesday and heading towards the region.
Wednesday evening, the effects of the low pressure from the south will start to be felt as it makes a glancing blow past the region. Looks like the cool air will not have arrived in time on Wednesday evening, so we'll keep the region with mild temperatures and rain as the precip. As to how far west the precip will make it from the southern low is a little questionable, but the eastern half of the region has a good chance of seeing it.
Wednesday night...the weather gets interesting at this time. The cold front will be nearing Chicago and this going to really push some of those winds up. I haven't added them into the forecasts yet, I will wait until tomorrow morning to make sure it will be breezy. Southern low veers suddenly to the northeast so the the heaviest of the rain will actually miss the region. The upper level trough gets sharp and the northern low will slide into the northern Great Lakes region pulling its cold front closer to the region.
Thursday and Thursday night, scattered precip will be out and about in the region, mainly in a mix from the first low and the northern low. Scattered rain showers in the morning will quickly turn over to snow showers as the front passes and the 1000-500-mb height levels drop to 540-mb in an west-east fashion on Thursday morning. Looks like the front will reach the western half of the region before noon, the eastern half of the region during the afternoon. That will obviously determine the transition periods. Did I mention that with the passage of the cold front there is a chance - I will do further forecasting on it tomorrow morning - that another lake effect snow event may begin to develop throughout the region.
As to how cool the temperatures are going to drop, the models begin to really differ with this. I am going to keep my temperatures with what they are at for now, I am thinking that after the initial push from the front, the upper level trough is going to begin a gradual transition with the temps throughout the region. We're looking at our 500-mb heights to be somewhere between 510-mb and 540-mb. As for getting single digit temperatures...not quite yet, I am going to make sure I hold off on those numbers for now, but some mid teens are looking possible.
I'll keep you updated as always. If any changes this evening that makes me change the forecast then I will have a brief post about it - however I am not expecting that will happen. I'll have another full Post coming up around 6.30 a.m. tomorrow morning. Forecasts will be revised starting tomorrow morning at 4.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
No comments:
Post a Comment