The weak cold front is passing through the region right now, and as of the 09Z charts it was located just to the west of Cleveland and moving at a modest speed. Temperatures today are going to be cooler today than they were yesterday, with most of us staying in the lower 40's at the highest.
Overall, the weather synopsis for the next few days hasn't changed a whole lot since I last updated you, so lets take a look at what is going to happen over the next few days in the region:Tonight, the upper level trough will be over the region, barely, and it will have some cooler temperatures with it. With the passage of the weak front, a few lake effect flurries could pop up this afternoon and overnight in the eastern half of the region, but generally the snow showers are going to be far apart and weak, so I am not expecting any accumulation. There are factors working against the snow showers, as the temperature contrast with the front isn't going to be high, the difference between the surface and 850-mb levels wont be that great and the winds will be fairly light and possibly not at the direction (a simple degree or two difference in the winds can mean a lot when it comes to lake effect snow). Too add to insult, the temperatures in the eastern half of the region will still be a little too warm to support accumulation as will the ground.
Highs tomorrow in the region are going to be a little bit cooler as well, with most of the region staying generally below 40° for a high tomorrow. The trough is going to work tomorrow to keep the clouds in the region as well as those cooler temperatures, but the trough isn't that strong, nor is it all the way over us, so there will be a few breaks in the clouds tomorrow as well.
Weather remaining generally calm across the region as the upper level trough pulls out of the region for Monday and Monday night, and this is where the weather gets a little interesting...
Late tomorrow night and into Monday we're going to watch an area of high pressure attempt to develop in the region off the NW flow of the trough and this high pressure will work in keeping the skies clear for the region until about Tuesday. But this high pressure will also start to work against our favor in terms of temperatures.
Monday night the area of high pressure is going to move over to the mid-Atlantic states and this is going allow for warm air to brough up into the region behind the retreating trough. The retreating trough of low pressure will also develop a closed upper low over Texas and this is going to effect the region, but not as much as I was orginally expecting...more on that in a second.
Tuesday, we'll watch a decent ridge of high pressure start building into the region, and this ridge of high pressure is going to usher in some above normal temperatures into the region once again. At the same time, we're going to start watching a high pressure roll into the northern Rockies along side of a trough which is going to start nearing the region over the course of that day.
By Tuesday night, the upper level low pressure will be more organized and it will have its surface low pressure with. This low will start to head towards the eastern half of the region. At the same time, the upper trough is going to cross through the Rockies and begin to head towards the region as well. This upper level trough is going to develop a surface low pressure along its base and this is going to be the main low pressure feature over the long term forecast period. By late Tuesday night, we're going to see a well defined upper level trough and an upper level ridge. The ridge over our region, and the trough over the Rockies. The southern Low pressure (the one from Texas) is going to work to stay ahead of that trough and it's high pressure, this is where the forecast gets a little bit on the interesting side.
Wednesday, we're going to watch the southern low pressure near the region. The low will effect the eastern half of the region, however the big question is going to be how far west its precip is going to go. I did drop some of the precip chances in the west a little bit and rose them up in the east, howevber I am expecting that nonetheless a few showers could work their way into the western half of the region during the late afternoon. our attention will begin to turn to many locations during this time as we're going to see just a pluthera of fun weather to look at. With that being typed, lets see what Wednesday evening is going to shape out to be in the region:
Models are generally in agreement this morning of the existance of this system, however there is a little disagreement with the exact locations of these systems. Right now, I am leaning more towards the ECMWF because it has been a tad bit more on the continuous side (and it appears to be more seasonal) than the GFS has been. In a nutshell, we're going to see a very deep upper level trough dig into the Plains on Wednesday evening and this upper level trough is going to develop its surface low pressure to the full extent during this time. This low pressure is going to develop somewhere between the northern and Minnesota (exact exact location isn't that important for right now) and this low pressure will have a broad cold front that is going to extend through the Plains. At the same time, our southern low pressure will make its glancing blow into the region, trying to stay ahead of the trough. The southern low will actually make a sharp turn from the north-northeast to the northeast and this is going to pull the first wave of precip out of the region. Now the question of the morning with this first low pressure is going to be whether or not the cool air will fully make it in time. Right now, that is looking like it will not happen. I am thinking that advection from the south is going to be too great for the cool advection to reach it in time when the first low pressure moves through the eastern half of the region. I am going to keep rain showers in the forecast for the day Wednesday and into Wednesday evening across the region as the precip type.
Late Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, that southern low pressure will have basically exited the western half of the region and it will have started to work with the northern low pressure that is associated with the trough. This is where the weather only gets more interesting. A cold front will tear across the region on Thursday and this is going to cool the temperatures down, finally back to normal in the region. This cold front will also begin to produce snow showers as the upper level trough moves towards the region with cooler temperatures and some unstable air (to an extent). Looks like we'll be seeing a near repeat of the weather we saw last weekend. However, an interesting focus with this portion of the forecast turns to Thursday night.
Thursday night, looking at the 1000-500-mb heights, the region will enter a range that is close to the 510-mb line which means that some cooler weather will be in the region. At this point, I am not expecting that the temperatures will make it to single digits, but it might be close. I'll do more work on this throughout the morning and early afternoon.
(ECMWF look at Thursday evening).Upper level trough is going to hang on into the region for the remainder of the week and into the start of the weekend...however Thursday is as far as I have forecasted for at this point.
I'll be working on those extended forecasts later this morning and again later this afternoon. However, I am not expecting that much of my present information is going to change much over the course of today, so there will be no Noon Post. I'll have another update coming up in the late afternoon, so make sure that you check back for that. Forecasts will be revised periodically throughout the day. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!
No comments:
Post a Comment