GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Will there be snow?

12 December 2011

Will there be snow?

The weather for the region this week will be almost straight forward as a low pressure develops in the Plains and heads towards the region. This will give the region…rain for the middle of the week and the only snow that is going to be possible will be in the eastern half of the region where some lake effect could develop behind the front.

High pressure to the east of the region today will keep the weather calm and clear for just one more day. This high pressure is going to start ushering in some southernly air into the region so the highs are going to be a bit warmer today than they were yesterday. This high pressure will continue to slide off to the east tonight.

The high pressure will still be around tomorrow morning, so that is going to allow for the skies to remain clear for the bulk of the morning tomorrow, but then the high will lose its influence as a low pressure begins to develop ahead of an upper level trough down in the Plains. As this low develops, clouds will start to be brought into the region from the upper level winds that will carry a weak low way up to our north. The temperatures will also begin to gradually warm a little bit, but depending on how early tomorrow afternoon those clouds show up, could hinder the highs by about a degree or two, but for now I’ll just keep tomorrow’s highs where they are at.

Upper level trough digs through the southern Rockies tomorrow night and then starts to kick up a surface low pressure centre down in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle. This will occur along the trough of low pressure while the upper level ridge is right over the region. This will allow for some warm advection to take place tomorrow night and the influence of the low pressure to become noticabl.

The low pressure will start to deepen quickly tomorrow night/Wednesday morning and it will ride the upper winds to the west of the region. If you remember, to get the snow from a low like this, you want to be on the northwest side of the low pressure…we’re going to miss that possibility completely. The low pressure will pass over Lake Michigan and head into the U.P. of Michigan. This will happen over the course of Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Ahead of the low we can expect developing rain showers, as the trailing cold front will be way off to the west of the region and the warm front will have passed over the region. The low pressure nears Lake Michigan on Wednesday night and that is going to really introduce those rain showers into the region.

Highs on Thursday ahead of the front will be noticably warmer for this time of the year as the cold front will not have passed quite yet. Rain showers will be at their best on Thursday morning as the low pressure heads over the northern Great Lakes and the cold front works its way into the region. The cold front will then start to push through the region early Thursday afternoon and this will start to drop the temperatures by about 10° behind the front. This will put the western half of the region with high temperatures occuring around Noon, and then falling during the mid afternoon.

Once the front passes through the western half of the region Thursday afternoon, it will quickly take the rain showers with and clear those skies out for a good looking, and cooler Friday.

The eastern half of the region will not be as easy to get rid of that precip. I am expecting that when that front passes through Thursday evening, then cold front will once again drag cooler air over the warmer lake waters. This could produce a small lake effect snow event which is something that I am going to be doing further forecasting on throughout the morning.

So, pending no surprises, the forecast for this system will be fairly simple, mainly just timing and temperatures will provide the only challenge. Those extended forecasts will be revised throughout the morning.

So will we be getting a white Christmas?

(GFS not looking very promising for 19 December) With only 13.5 forecasting days left to go, I’ll give you a look at what I am expecting for Christmas Eve and Christmas day across the region during the 7.30 a.m. update on the site, so be sure to read that.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.