GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A White Christmas?

12 December 2011

A White Christmas?

The high pressure is just off to the east of the region this morning and again, this will keep the skies clear today but the southernly flow will allow for temperatures to be around 40° today for most places in the region. The clear skies will take us into the overnight hours tonight and through tomorrow morning, but that high will pressure drift too far off to the east tomorrow afternoon and its influence will dwindle greatly.

Tomorrow night the ridge of high pressure basically gets over us as an upper level trough digs into the southern Rockies, spawning a surface low pressure centre down in the Oklahoma panhandle area. This low pressure will quickly deepen and pass off to the northwest of the forecast area, brining a trailing front behind it. Ahead of the front, rain showers and warm advection will take place across the region. The front will pass through on Thursday afternoon for the western half of the region and that will quickly clear the skies out along with the rain showers for a decent looking weekend – cooler of course.

For the eastern half of the region, that cold front might actually kick up a few lake effect snow showers Thursday night through Friday in the eastern half of the region, but I’ll type more about that later.

So I am sure that a lot of you are wondering about whether or not we’ll have a white Christmas? Lets take a look into what I am thinking will happen.

First off, doing some historical date probing, we can see that over the past 11 Christmas’, things have been all over the place.

Historically on Christmas Day, Toledo averages a high of 29° with a low of 19° and typically you guys see a tleas light snow showers. The coolest of the past 11 Christmas’ was 2004 when snow fell and the overnight low was -11°. The worst Christmas is 2005, 2006 and 2009 when temperatures where in the 40’s and it rained.

Erie, the past 11 years has brought you the average temps of 33° for a high, and 24° for a low with a wintry mix. The best Christmas was 2000 and 2004 when highs were in the teens and it snowed. The worst Christmas was 2005, 2006 and 2009 when it was in the 40’s and poured rain.

Fort Wayne, much the same as Toledo. Highs at 29°, lows at 18° and typicall you guys see snow. The best Christmas was 2000 and 2004 (for the same reasons as Erie) and the worst being once again 2005, 2006, and 2009 when it rained constantly.

Cleveland, you guys normally see 32° for a high and 23° for a low with snow showers. The best being 2004 when the high was 17° and the low was -5° and you guys saw snow. The worst was 2005, 2006 and 2009 when it rained nonstop.

Detroit and Buffalo, I am still going over your numbers, but you guys aren’t much different from the rest of the region.

So how will this Christmas rank in the region? Well, Christmas is 13.5 forecasting days away, and already the models are hinting at a low pressure system that will effect the region. This low, while still a few days out, does appear to be a “make or break” for a white Christmas. The models are in a little bit of disagreement as to how much the Plain’s low and how much the upper Plains low will influence the weather. The 850-mb 0°C temps are all over the place with each model run. The system that we’re focusing on will be Monday, 19th December and that is where some of my attention will be drawn to this morning during forecasting. This system, though still in its infancy on the models, will be one to keep an eye on as it will give us some precip around Christmas (although rain or snow is still up for debate).

So calm weather today and tomorrow morning, low pressure gets organized and heads towards the region by Wednesday. Rain showers looking likely. Cold front moves through on Thursday, clearing out the west but possibly giving lake effect to the east. Cooler temperatures behind the system.

I’ll have a brief update at 10.00 a.m. along with those revised extended forecasts at that time as well. I’ll have a full update at noon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.