GREAT LAKES WEATHER: White Christmas likely for...

22 December 2011

White Christmas likely for...

Alright, things aren’t going to be that active over the next couple of days once this low pressure system passes through the region. We’re going to have a good sized high pressure finally give us the break that we’ve been waiting for. Today is the last chance for Christmas Travel weather forecasts, however I am going to provide forecasts for Today through New Years, so if you’d like travel weather for any place in the country – or world for that matter – send me an email at albertson_timmy@yahoo.com

A low pressure system is developing in the south right now ahead of an upper level short wave. This low pressure will head northeast and graze the forecast area. At the same time, a weak cold front is going to come down from the northern Plains today and this will make things a little interesting.

For today, I did keep the western half of the region region dry, but once the sun comes up I am going to check to see if I need to add drizzle to the forecasts in the west. Otherwise, the main excitement will not arrive until late this afternoon. The low pressure is going to ride through Kentucky/Tennessee and then head into Virginia this evening. The low pressure system have a broad shield precipitation that will brush the entire forecast region. Looks like the only places that will see the most from this will be areas around Erie and Buffalo.

Erie will more than likely see the most of any precip in the region from this system, so we’re going to type about them the most this morning. Here we go:

Some lake enchanced rain showers will develop in a little bit, they will be light but they will be around, especially this afternoon if all goes to plan. These rain showers will then switch over to the influence of the low pressure just to the south of the region. The precip will start off as rain tonight, but the low pressure will pull down cool air from the retreating high and this is going to switch over the rain to snow. Snow showers will then be likely overnight tonight in the Erie area and accumulations tonight will be about 1 to 3 inches in most areas (most will see about an inch, but locally 3 inches possible).

Low pressure system passes off to the southeast and the snow shield will be pulled away with it. Despite this, the winds will shift to the NW and this will blow off the lake and then some lake effect snow will be possible afterwards. Looks like a white Christmas is likely for the Erie area this year.

Cleveland, you guys will be picking up some flurries from this as well, but nothing out of the usual. Buffalo, you’ll see a little bit less than Erie for the same reasons.

So places where snow is possible for Christmas: Buffalo, Cleveland and definetly Erie.
Places where snow for Christmas is debatable: Detroit.
Places where it’ll be sunny for Christmas: Fort Wayne and Toledo.

I’ll keep you updated throughout the morning, I’ll be finishing up some weather work that needs to get done – so many files and charts to file – so keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.