GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Unsettled, yet clear cut

02 December 2011

Unsettled, yet clear cut

The weather pattern over the next couple of days will be a some what unsettled one as a low pressure will pass barely to the west of the region and this is going to pull a slow moving cold front through the region.

Upper level trough will move slowly into the northern Plains and extend down in the southern Plains on Saturday. This will kick up a surface low pressure centre down in the central Plains on Saturday afternoon, more so towards the evening hours. This low pressurecentre will deepen a little bit and then make a beeline towards the region, pulling its trailing cold front along with it. This low pressure will have a weak warm front that will extend out ahead of it, and that will introduce some warmer weather into the region on Saturday night.

By Sunday morning, the low pressure will be off to the west of the region nearing the Chicago area, and it will be just a tad bit stronger than I was expecting, at 1012-mbs,

(SREF look at the weather for Sunday morning) but that doesn’t really change the forecast a whole lot. The low pressure will continue its steep course to the northeast which will drag the cold front along with it. However, the steep northeast course will actually start to slow down the general west-east course of the cold front.

At the same time, the upper trough will continue to dig into the Plains and I’ll get to this in a moment.

Low pressure passes through the region on Sunday evening, but then the front will start to stall out across the state of Ohio and this will help keep the rain showers in the region.

At the same time, we’re going to watch that upper level trough kick up another surface low along the front down in the southern states. It is because of this slow moving front as it goes through the region that I will keep the showers in the region. Along with this, that upper level trough will allow for a few waves of low pressure to ride along it in the meantime which will add to the chances of rain showers and snow showers. This seems like the pattern that we were becoming accustomed to last month.

High pressure will begin to build off in the Plains during the day Monday and this high pressure is going to begin to force this slow moving (possibly still stationary) front start picking up some speed. It will also force another decent surface low to develop in the southern states and then move up the east coast – which in turn will pull the front out of the region.

I’ll keep you updated throughout, and we’ll go more in depth about the weather between Sunday and Tuesday and I’ll have an update on that around 7.30 a.m. and I’ll be tweaking up the extended forecasts on the site as well around 7.00 a.m.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.