GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still Clear Cut, yet Unsettled

02 December 2011

Still Clear Cut, yet Unsettled

As mentioned earlier this morning, a somewhat unsettled weather pattern will effect us towards the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. Right now, the only real challenge is the timing of the precip after Sunday through Tuesday. Lets go a little in depth with this system and maybe we can get a better idea of what just might happen:

Area of high pressure builds quickly into the region this afternoon as the cold front exits, but this area of high pressure will not even overstay its welcome greeting. It will be quick to move out of the region as an advancing upper level trough begins to dig into the Plains. This upper level trough of low pressure will be just enough that it is going to kick up some weather for us.

On Saturday afternoon as the high pressure exits the region, the upper level trough will start to dig into the Plains. As it does so, it will extend far enough south that it shall kick up a surface low pressure centre late Saturday afternoon in the south central Plains. This low pressure will start to deepen as it makes a beeline for Chicago. The low pressure will be a tad bit stronger than I was expecting this time yesterday mroning. It will be about 1012-mbs as it passes to the west of Chicago. This low pressure will have a cold front which will extend southward and this is going to allow for some warm advection to take place in the region on Saturday and parts of Sunday.

(SREF look at the weather for Sunday morning).

This low pressure will continue its good northeast course, but as it pulls the front through on Sunday the front will start to slow down in its west-east course. The stalling of the front will occur in the eastern half of the region which will allow for a few waves of low pressure to ride along it. This will keep the rain showers and possible snow mixing in the forecast as that front will be in the region.

At the same time, a high pressure will start to develop in the Plains and this high pressure is going to start to nudge that cold front forward on Monday and Tuesday. This will occur as the trough of low pressure pushes through the region. As this trough of low pressure pushes through the region, it will kick up a low pressure centre at the end of the front down in the southern states. As of now, this low pressure will miss the region, but a few snow showers could throw themselves over into the eastern half of the region on Wednesday as the low pressure moves towards New England. At this point, I am not expecting that much in terms of precip to occur from this low pressure.

So where is the main forecasting going to this morning? That time slot from the point where the front become stationary until the time it moves. Waves of low pressure from the upper trough are going to ride along that stationary front. This means that the western half of the region could see nothing but clouds, but the eastern half of the region might be seeing more precip. The other question at this point is how much of this will be snow and how much will be rain. 850-mb temps will be the main interest as this could be the difference between rain and snow, which I will be doing further forecasting on.

Otherwise, not a hard forecast, just the temps that make the forecast a tad bit tricky after Sunday.

I’ll be updating the forecasts throughout the morning, so make sure you check back for updates on that. I’ll have a brief update coming up around 10.00 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.