GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Unsettled Weather On the Way

03 December 2011

Unsettled Weather On the Way

The clouds are on the increase this morning from the west and right now they are in Indiana and they will gradually make their way into the western half of the region this morning. Now the eastern half of the region will have to wait a little bit longer for those clouds to arrive and I am not expecing them to reach the eastern half of the region until later this afternoon. The main weather feature this morning will be a developing low pressure centre which will forming in the central Plains in a couple hours.

The low pressure centre is going to develop along an upper level trough which extends down into the Plains this morning. The amusing thing about this low pressure is that it will produce winter like weather in the Plains, but that wintry weather wont get to us. The low pressure centre is going to deepen late this morning and afternoon and it will do so as it makes a basic beeline towards the western Great Lakes region.

Models are in fair agreement this morning as to the course of the low pressure centre through Sunday evening. The low pressure centre will pass just off to the west of Chicago tomorrow morning and this low will have a trailing cold front behind it. The cold front will help to usher in some warm advection towards the region tomorrow morning and this will put our highs in the region close to about 50° - which is warmer than what we’ve been seeing. As the cold front nears the region, it’ll start to kick up those rain showers in the morning and those rain showers will be steady in the afternoon.

The rain showers will start off in the western half of the region tomorrow morning, and the the eastern half of the region is going to have to wait an additonal 8 to 12 hours before those rain showers make it over to your part of the region.

As the low pressure continues its sharp northeastern course the cold front will start to slow down on its west-east course. I am expecting that by late tomorrow afternoon or early tomorrow evening that cold front will stall out in the central part of the forecast area. This is going to keep those rain showers in the region and the majority of the good rain showers will stay in the eastern half of the region, but the western half of the region is going to see some nonetheless. The upper level trough just off to the west at this point will allow for a few waves of low pressure to ride along the stationary front, and those waves will help to keep the rain showers in the region.

As the stationary front extends down into the southern states, the upper level trough of low pressure – which will have been moving slowly unitil this point – will get a good nudge from a quick wave of low pressure. This will make the upper level trough move out of the northern Plains and begin to move towards the region. This upper trough is going to spawn another surface low pressure down in the southern states (more so near Texas/Arkansas) on Monday afternoon. This low pressure will deepen along the stationary front and then it’ll move towards the region.

This low pressure will deepen rapidly and then make a very quick course towards the region by Monday night. This low pressure will actually help in moving the stationary front, but it will also bring in more rain showers into the region and maybe even some snow showers. This low pressure will pass just off to the south and east of the region –barely – and then the forecast gets a little question as Tuesday afternoon rolls around

(GFS look at Tuesday morning). Here is why:

The surface low pressure will pass by the region, but then it’ll hook towards the north and move towards the New England. The big question is this morning on how close that low pressure will be to the region when it does that hook. The upper level trough will just be entering the region at this point which will really help in determining the course of the low pressure centre. If the low pressure remains close to the region during this time, then the precip chances will have to be extended further westward on Wednesday. It is this turn that I am going to be following closely throughout the day today, so do be sure to check those extended forecasts for further updates regarding Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

I’ll keep you updated as always, and I’ll have a brief update coming up between 10.30 a.m. and 11.30 a.m. this morning, and the extended forecasts will be revised around that time as well.

But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.