GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Soggy Weather...

04 December 2011

Soggy Weather...

Rain showers this morning making their way into the western half of the region as the cold front is still moving through Illinois at this point. The front will make it into the region this afternoon and when it does, it will start to slow down and become stationary late tonight in Ohio. This will keep rain showers in the region.

The low pressure centre right now is making its way just off to the west of Chicago this morning as it continues to head northeastward towards the western half of the Great Lakes. The low pressure is doing well this morning at 1007-mbs as of the 09Z charts. Now this low pressure has a trailing cold front with it, and as this low moves off to the northeast, it will pull its front into the region. Now because this low pressure will be making a sharp northeast course, the cold front will start to slow down in its west-east course and then stall out over Ohio later tonight.

As this front stalls out in the region, it will keep the rain showers in the region. Now the ground is already saturated from the rains we saw a few days ago, and though the rain fall totals for today and tonight wont be nearly as high as what we saw the other day, it won’t take much to help kick up some of that field flooding again. But that is a topic for another update.

Now as this front stalls out, it will extend all the way down into the southern states. This front will allow for another area of low pressure to develop down in the souther states (along with a few other waves of low pressure) tomorrow. Of the waves of low pressure, one of them will be an alright sized low pressure centre and this is going to help kick up the rain showers back into the region.

(SREF's Precip/Pressure look at Monday night).

The low pressure will actually start in helping to move to the front out of the region, but that does come with the price of rain showers. Looks like tomorrow will be another good day of rain showers throughout the region as the low pressure centre moves up towards the region.

The upper level trough isn’t going to be as strong as I was originally expecting, but it will still be around and rather influencial for the low (as the normally are). Now this second low pressure (the one that will develop tomorrow along the stationary front) won’t be very strong as it passes through the eastern half of the region. This means that it won’t have as good of a cold air pool as I was expecting this time yesterday. This doesn’t mean that the snow shower chances are going to be completely gone in the region. Hardly.

The low will be able to pull in enough cool air that some of those rain showers (especially in the east) will be able to turn over to snow showers. At this point, I am not expecting any accumulation from this system, and at most the system could give us would be a half inch.

This low pressure will pull the stationary front out of the region around Tuesday and that is giong to help to end the precip chances throughout the region. A nice sized high pressure will build in behind the front and that is going to push our temperatures down to below average temps. The highs on Thursday might not even get out of the mid 30’s in some places, some obviously some cooler weather in the region towards the end of the week.

I’ll keep you updated throughout the day…I’ll have a brief update coming up between 10.00 a.m. and 11.00 a.m. and I’ll be tweaking up those extended forecasts around that time as well. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates becauseI’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.