A rather broad upper level low is situated all the way up in Canada this morning and already this morning the formation of our upper level trough is visibile from Alberta. This upper trough is going to pick up some power as it slides into the northern Plains later this morning. The upper trough will then be rather defined in the northern Plains tonight. The cold front is still back in the Dakotas and its waiting for that extra push to get it moving. Once the upper trough gets close enough, it’ll push that cold front ahead.
The cold front will be the main culprit of the snow showers that we’ll be seeing in the region tomorrow. It’ll be a quick mover as it comes out of the Plains, but it will make some rather noticable changes to the weather in the region over the next couple of days. Temperatures are going to drop a good 10-15° behind the front which will be enough to produce some nice lake effect snow in the Buffalo and northern Erie areas tomorrow and Saturday morning.
As the upper trough comes down from the Plains, the cold front will be the precurser as a surface low tries to remain ahead of the trough by cutting through Lake Superior. The cold front will extend down into the trough of low pressure where it will produce some scattered snow showers for the region.
The cold front will slide into the western half of the region tomorrow morning, by about 5.00 a.m. or so, and just ahead of and barely behind the front will be those scattered snow showers. The snow showers in the western half of the region will be fairly light as there wont be a whole lot of moisture for the front to work with (seeing as how it’s a northern Plain low) so I am not expecing that snow fall totals in the western half of the region will exceed an inch at best.
The cold front cuts through the western half of the region tomorrow morning, and despite a few lingering possible snow showers around Noon, the afternoon will be a decreasing cloud afternoon in the west. But this isn’t the end, no, its almost a false hope for the eastern half of the region – unless you like the snow, then its great.
The cold front will approach the eastern half of the region tomorrow afternoon, and the same snow showers that will effect the west late tonight and tomorrow morning will start to effect you guys in the morning as well. But when the front passes, the fun will just start…the upper trough will not have passed the region at this point…it will still be in Illinois.
When the cold front passes through the Erie and Buffalo areas tomorrow afternoon, the winds will increase a bit out of the west and northwest and this air will be much cooler…especially at the 850-mb level where temps could be as low as -14°C. This cooler air is going to rush over the warmer waters of Lake Erie, produce some rain over the lake and then when that rain gets over the cool land…snow. The lake effect snow machine will start to rev up tomorrow afternoon with the passage of the front and that means that, all conditions holding out, the accumulating snow will start to fall.
The snow wont start off as heavy, but overnight tomorrow it could be heavy at times which is why I am going to give Buffalo a snow accumulation total between tomorrow morning and Saturday morning of about 5-10 inches. This is nothing unusual for you guys, and it is about time that you got some decent lake effect snow.
The upper trough will be over Ohio at this point late Friday night and early Saturday morning, and while the eastern half of the region is going to be seeing lake effect snow…the western half will be seeing clear skies. These clear skies will allow for radiant cooling to take place overnight and that will drop the temperatures to about 15° in the western half of the region tomorrow night and early Saturday morning.
As the trough passes over on Saturday morning, the high pressure will slide in right behind (physics makes this happen) and that high pressure will maintain the cooler air over the western half of the region where highs will generally stay below 30° for a high on Saturday (but it’ll be clear…).
Upper trough passes over the eastern half of the region around Noon on Saturday and this is going to shut off the lake effect snow…rather quickly. The snow showers will linger around the eastern half of the region early Saturday afternoon, but that same high pressure will cease its existance of lake effect snow. This means that majority of you in the Erie and Buffalo area get to spend your Saturday afternoon shoveling the snow.
With all that being said and typed, the high pressure will dominate the regional weather through Sunday, Monday and the majority of Tuesday until our next system arrives. But more on that later.
So for the eastern half of the region, here is a general synopsis of what is going to happen over the next 48-hours: Cold front enters the region tomorrow morning introducing snow showers into your half of the region. The snow showers will generally be light when they first arrive. Cold front pushes through tomorrow afternoon, thus leading to lake effect snow. Snow showers continue on through the overnight Friday and into Saturday morning. Snow will be heavy at times. About 5-10 inches in Buffalo, 2-3 in Erie, about an inch possible in Cleveland. Upper trough finally moves through on Saturday around Noon, shuts off the lake effect, then a high pressure builds in for a calm rest of the weekend.
Temperatures will gradually warm up over Sunday and Monday as the high pressure slips off to the east.
I’ll keep you updated as always, I’ll be working on those extended forecasts throughout the morning and I’ll have a brief update around 10.00 a.m. if need be, and a full update around Noon. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
Precip needed to break yearly records:
Toledo: about an inch to break the old record of 47.84 inches for the year 1950.
Erie: about eight inches of precip to break the old record of 61.70 set for the year 1977.
Cleveland: Eight-and-a-half inches above the old time record of 53.83 set for the year 1990.
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