GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Looking A Bit Like Winter...

08 December 2011

Looking A Bit Like Winter...

A slight change in the forecast for the wind direction has made me up the snow fall totals for the Buffalo area. Buffalo can expect about 5-10 inches of snow fall between tonight and Saturday morning, and this will fall mainly in the form of lake effect. Erie wont see as much with snow fall totals of about 2-3 inches. Otherwise, most other places in the region will only be seeing a dusting of the snow at the best.

The upper level trough is going to rush out of the Plains with the cold front ahead of it. The cold front is going to rush down from the Plains late tonight and this front will move over the western half of the region tomorrow morning. This will give the western half of the region snow shower chances late tonight through tomorrow morning, but once that front passes the skies are going to quickly clear out and the area of high pressure is going to make its presense known rather quickly. Temperatures are going to fall nicely tomorrow night as lows will make their way to about 15°, maybe a degree lower, in the western half of the region.

The eastern half of the region will see the same quick rush of light snow showers ahead of the front…but then the real excitement begins once the front passes. As the front passes tomorrow afternoon/evening, that is going to bring some much cooler temperatures over the warmer lake waters. And with the direction of the wind, it will toss those snow showers up right along the inland locations of Buffalo to just north of Erie. The snow will be heavy at times as it will be lake effect and parts of that area will be seeing anywhere from 5 to possibly 10-inches of snow.

The upper level trough is going to pass through on Saturday morning in the western half of the region and Saturday evening in the eastern half of the region. This is going to introduce that nice ridge of high pressure into the region and this is going to calm the weather down for the region as a whole over the next couple of days.

The coolest weather is going to occur tomorrow night/Saturday in the region as that upper trough gets ready to enter the region.

So the next 48-hours will be rather interesting as the cold front and upper trough get ready to move through the region. The cold front passes through tomorrow in the region, which will calm the west down and start the lake effect for the eastern half of the region. The upper trough passes through on Saturday which is going to bring in the cooler weather for the region Friday night and Saturday, and once it passes through on Saturday afternoon, the ridge will set up in the region and this will keep us calm through the end of the forecast period (with the exception of Tuesday night where another disturbance might push through the eastern half of the region).

I’ll have another update coming up around 7.30 a.m. on so be sure to check that out, and I’ll be revising those extended forecasts around that time as well. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.