No major changes to the forecasts right now as things are mainly going to plan. Just waiting for the 12Z model runs to come out, so until then I am not making many major changes to the forecast. I did add some accumulations in Erie for Monday, but I will wait until this afternoon to add totals to the rest of the region. Otherwise, some simple time adjustments to the extended forecasts, nothing much. Here is a look at what we can expect to see in the region over the next couple of days.
REGIONAL NEAR TERM:
This afternoon, low pressure centre from the Plains, although weak, will continue to makes its presense known across the region as it slides through. Expect rain showers to continue in the region for the remainder of the afternoon however the ones in the east will become light and widely scattered. Temperatures will stay hindered by the cloud cover and across the region they will barely make it to 40°.
Tonight, low pressure starts to exit the region, dragging its weak cold front with it. This weak cold front might supply enough push that we could see a little lake enhanced rain showers develop in the eastern half of the region late tonight. Otherwise, generally another quiet night as the low weakens and diminishes. Clouds will slowly burn off in the western half of the region tonight as the ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
REGIONAL SHORT TERM:
Tomorrow, a ridge of high pressure begins to build up in the region as a surface area of high pressure builds to the south. This ridge will push the weak front out of the region and despite a few lingering morning rain showers in the east, the region will be generally quiet. Skies will start to clear out in the western half of the region and we'll go with mostly clear skies for the west, and some lingering clouds in the eastern half of the region. The ridge of high pressure quickly starts sliding to the east tomorrow and this is going to put the region on the southwest flow of the ridge - thus introducing some warm advection into the region ahead of our next system which is going to enter the ergion.
Tomorrow night, I am expecting that the low pressure system - which is our next big weather changer - will start to near the region. The surface low pressure will be well developed and have a broad trailing cold front along with it. The low will be moving ahead of an upper level trough which is going to come racing out of the northern Plains. Now tomorrow night the region will be calm with some increasing clouds in the western half of the region as that low pressure approaches.
Sunday, the most exciting day in the region, looking at the low pressure system to be nearing the region with precip all around. Warm advection will make one last attempt on Sunday morning to be in the region, but with that cold front nearing the region it wont be long until the temperature changes arrive. Precip will start off as widely scattered rain showers in the west, and then the cold front will start to race out ahead of the low pressure system. The cool air behind it will help push the front outward a little bit. This is going to cause a very brief break in the precip late tomorrow morning, but the precip that does form at this time will be rain/snow mix in the western half of the region. The eastern half of the region will still be holding onto rain showers at this time in the morning. Then in the afternoon the front will further push eastward and thus allowing temperatures in the western half of the region to drop even further. With the centre of the low pressure approaching we can expect to see snow showers developing around the centre of the low pressure in the western half of the region. Once the front passes through the eastern half of the region late tomorrow afternoon, then transitional face will basically be already underway in the eastern half of the region.
REGIONAL MID TERM:
Sunday night, the front passes through the entire region and now it is the upper level troughs turn. Looking at the upper level trough which will be fully entering the region at this time, it will bring some much cooler weather as the flow drags in a lot of cool air down from the northern Plains. This air flow will have a NW flow to it, and this is going to blow over the warmer waters of the lake. It'll be around this time that a fun and decent lake effect snow event is going to start taking shape in the eastern half of the region. The western half of the region is going to hang on to some unsettled weather, but that will come mainly in the form of widely scattered snow showers as the upper level trough will be hanging around the region at this time.
Monday, with a continuous wind flow from the NW, the snow showers in the eastern half of the region will continue on as lake effect. Accumulations will be decent, and just for the 12-hr Monday forecast period Erie will get their usual 1-3 inches of lake effect. But the lake effect machine isn't going to be done quite yet as the winds will continue to the blow while the pressure gradients both at the surface and in the upper levels really tightens up. The western half of the region will actually start to see those snow showers tapering off before Noon during this time as the upper level trough will slowly slide a bit to the east and thus allow for mere clouds and much cooler temperatures.
So some fun weather on the way as cooler temperatures will enter the region and make the start of January actually feel like January.
I'll keep you updated as always and I'll be revising those forecasts this afternoon. I'll have another post coming up later this afternoon as well. Be sure to check those forecasts for updates. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!
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