GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Noon Update/White Christmas update

14 December 2011

Noon Update/White Christmas update

Christmas weather can be found towards the end of the post. Upper level trough digging into the western Plains this afternoon has spun up a surface low centre down in the western Kansas area not that long ago. This low pressure is moving through Kansas and getting a little bit stronger with each passing update and it will start to slide up to the northeast to pass off to the west of the forecasting region. Looking at the temperatures associated with this system, some good advection is beginning to take place around it as warm air is being pulled up from the south towards the region. With the introduction of this warm air into the region, the temperatures tonight will be fairly steady across the region, hovering around in the mid 40’s for just about everybody.

The low pressure centre tonight will pass west of Chicago and head towards the U.P. of Michigan, causing the system to move its trailing cold front towards the region by early tomorrow morning.

Ahead of the cold front, naturally, temperatures will be at their best with highs upper 40’s for the western half of the region and possibly in the lower 50’s for the eastern half of the region. The rain showers will also be around, so do not expect those to go anywhere tomorrow morning. The cold front will start to push into the region by mid tomorrow morning and the first place it will reach will be Fort Wayne, followed up by Toledo a few hours later. This means that high temperatures tomorrow will occur mainly before noon and then fall steadily throughout the afternoon in the western half of the region. And though the rain showers will be clearing out in the western half of the region, we’re going to keep the clouds in the sky as a little residue moisture will be left over after the front passes.

Now if you’re in the eastern half of the region, tomorrow is going to work a bit differently. The rain showers will still be around in the eastern half of the region, pretty much for the entire day. Then the cold front will approach and highs tomorrow will occur at normal times which means that you guys in the east will get near to or possibly a degree above 50° for a high tomorrow. The rain showers will start to dwindle off with the passage of the cold front, however the cooler air will be brought over the lake and this will mix with some cooler temperatures aloft and we could see a brief lake effect snow event in the eastern half of the region. This event won’t last long at all and it will be very light as moisture will be scarce. Too add to the insult of this event, a high pressure will be right behind it so that will keep the event on its quietest behavior.

Now the question is still a little iffy for tomorrow night in the western half of the region as a trailing upper level trough will do a glancing blow through Michigan. This upper low will have moisture with it and this will produce a lake effect snow event up in Michigan. The question will be how far to the south will the clouds make it from this system, so that is something that I am going to be working on. If the clouds do decide to hang around after midnight tomorrow night then we’ll go with a small chance for flurries in the western half of the region, but they will only be flurries. Otherwise, high pressure really builds in tomorrow night after midnight and this will keep the weather calm and clear for the day Friday with some cooler temperatures in store for us.

So how is Christmas looking weather looking? Well all this morning I have been going on about a new pressure that has grasped my attention, and though the first cold front that we’ll see on Monday, 19 December might end up being a bit of a disappointment in terms of precip, but what comes after it will be interesting: there is another low pressure system that will form up behind it.

Pending our Monday cold front cools the air down behind it enough, it will allow for the next low pressure system to work with it. If the cooler air gets in the right location in the Plains, then the low pressure that will develop in the south/central Plains will be able to use this cool air. At the same time, the models are hinting at the weather working partially in our favor (I say partially because I do not want to jinx anything).

We’re going to see a low pressure centre develop in the southern Plains along side of an upper level trough (possibly a low depending on how things work) and this will head up towards the region. The low pressures at the surface will influence the upper winds enough to work with a trough that is going to come quickly out of the northern Plains. Pending this trough works in our favor, the surface low pressure will take partial control over it and move it over the region on Thursday 22 December or Friday 23 December. What does this mean? We might actually get some snow that could stick around (to the ground) for Christmas. This is still 8-9 forecasting days away and Christmas is 11 days out, so further – yet very intense – forecasting will be done throughout the afternoon.

I’ll have another update coming up around 3.30 p.m. or 4.00 p.m. both here on the site and on Facebook. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.