A few minor changes to the forecast this afternoon as a layer of stratus clouds is trying to quickly move through the western half of the region. This layer of stratus clouds will lead me to keep the clouds in the forecast for the majority of the region just a couple hours longer than expected. Otherwise, no major changes right now.
Jet stream extending all the way down from the Plains into the southern states and back up towards the region this afternoon. 300-mb winds are at 150kts over Toledo and 160+kts winds over Cleveland and Erie and Buffalo at this time. Fort Wayne has 300-mb winds of about 50kts this afternoon.
This jet streak will help in keeping the majority of the precip out of the region as the upper level trough does extend rather far to the south right now…this is producing a nice sized winter storm along the east coast this afternoon. It will be close for Erie late this afternoon as some of those rain/snow showers roll through central Pennsylvania, but I am expecting that they will not pass Bradford…or Dubois, so Erie will mainly stay dry this afternoon and into the evening.
A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region later this afternoon, more so for the western half of the region who’ll see some clearing in the skies for tonight and most of the calendar day tomorrow.
Looking up to our northwest, cold front situated in South Dakota right now will continue to be the flagship for our upper level trough that will cross through the region in a few days. This cold front will start to head towards the region this afternoon, but it won’t be until late tomorrow night/early Friday morning that this front will actually start to arrive fully. This front will be followed closely by an upper level which is going to be bringing in some much cooler air into the region for the day Saturday. On Saturday afternoon the ridge of high pressure will exit the region and we’ll go for some decreasing clouds in the late afternoon and into the evening for the region as a whole.
Working on the timing of the snow on Friday in the western half of the region along with the amount of Lake Effect snow for the eastern half of the region.
The lake effect snow event is coming into a clearer picture this afternoon as the latest charts have come out. There is going to be a good western flow of cool air off the lake as the 850-mb temps will be around -8°C around late tomorrow afternoon, according to the two of the models – which have been consistent. Surface temps will be dropping a bit as well as that front slides through the eastern half of the region.
Upper level low introduces that flow off the lake, but then it will quickly shut it off on Saturday morning. The question right now is actually the amount of lake effect snow that will be produced. The tightness of this trough is going to really determine a bit in the forecasts from Friday night through Saturday morning. The snow will definitely happen on Friday evening and into the late evening, but just how much of it will make it sunrise is in question. Looking at some of the models, there isn’t a disagreement on where the systems themselves will be, but there is a disagreement on the overall location of its precip. GFS is less friendly towards lake effect snow than the NAM and SREFs are.
Forecast is easy for the second half of Saturday through Monday as a ridge of high pressure will dominate the regional weather.
Extended forecasts are being revised, those will be up shortly.
I’ll keep you updated as always, I’ll have another update around 3.30 p.m. both on the site and on Facebook so be sure to check back for that. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather. Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.
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