GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Just when you thought the rain was done...

14 December 2011

Just when you thought the rain was done...

Upper level trough digging into the Plains this morning which is spawning a surface low pressure down in the Oklahoma panhandle this morning. This low pressure will quickly deepen this morning as it heads towards the region and this is going to help keep the rain showers in the region. The low pressure will have a trailing cold front with it, and as this front heads towards the region, warm advection will take place. This advection will keep the temperatures rather steady today across the region and then tomorrow the highs will get a degree or two higher.

There will be brief break in the rain showers this afternoon in the western half of the region, but those rain showers are going to return by the evening as that low approaches the region. So be sure to keep the rain jacket or umbrella with you.

As the cold front heads towards the region, warm advection will be at its maximum tomorrow morning in the western half of the region.The cold front will approach the western half of the region tomorrow around Noon and this means that highs in places from Fort Wayne to Cleveland will occur in the morning and then gradually drop throughout the afternoon. As the cold front passes through the western half of the region tomorrow, it’ll take the bulk of the rain showers with it and this is going to calm the weather down in the western half of the region. There will be a few lingering rain showers behind the front, but in general the skies will gradually clear tomorrow afternoon. The eastern half of the region wont be the same.

The eastern half of the region tomorrow will see the passage of the cold front in the evening, which means that highs will be near 50° tomorrow in the east and the rain showers will stick around. The cold front passes through the east tomorrow evening and that will quickly drop the temperatures behind the front. The front will bring cooler air over the warmer lake waters and this could produce a little lake enchanced snow. The thing about this however will be a high pressure which will be near to the event so it will keep the lake effect event on its quietest behavior.

High pressure sets up for the weekend, there could be a brief snow flurry on Saturday in the eastern half of the region, but otherwise the region will be calm with this high pressure.

Another low pressure system develops out in the Plains and heads towards the region by Monday. I am still working on the form of precip, but for now we’ll keep it at rain and snow showers in the region. The 850-mb level is all over the place this morning on Monday so further forecasting on it will be done throughout the morning.

Cold front passes through the region on Monday night and Tuesday and this will calm the weather down. But another low pressure has grabbed my attention this morning and this low pressure will come out of the southern Plains. At this point, still a little too early to make a call for snow on Christmas day, but it will be something that I am watching out for. I’ll also do further forecasting on this system later this morning as well.

So will we be seeing a white Christmas this year? For now, we’ll see some precip, but whether it’ll be rain or snow is something that I am still working on. I’ll have more information on this later as well.

I’ll keep you updated as always, I’ll have a brief update at 10.00 a.m. along with revised extended forecasts. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.