GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Post

15 December 2011

Evening Post

The weather across the region tonight will be fairly calm compared to what we’ve been seeing. Temperatures falling rather well in the western half of the region as the cold front has cleared that half of the regon by a long shot. 35° in the Fort Wayne area right now and about 8 hours we were sitting about 23° warmer, so that is a good temperatures difference over that way (temps as of 9.00 p.m.). 37° in Toledo, 39° in Detroit, 42° in Cleveland and 45° in Erie with 47° being reported in Buffalo. Looking to the west, temperatures aren't much cooler, so it looks like the temps aren't going to fall a whole lot more in the western half of the region tonight.

Some light lake effect snow will develop tonight in the eastern half of the region, but that wont be that much because the high pressure will be right on it. This event will calm down by tomorrow morning and then tomorrow the eastern half of the region will just be cloudy.

A moisture deprived upper level trough is going to come out of the northern Plains on Saturday and this is going to move over the region in a passing blow. This will cause for a decent chance at some widely scattered snow showers in the western half of the region, but again the eastern half of the region could be seeing another brief lake effect event on Saturday night.

High pressure builds to the south on Sunday night/Monday morning and that will keep that forecast period calm.

But a cold front from the Plains will move into the region and depending upon the exact timing of the front we could be seeing either rain or snow showers in the region. Then that front is going to stall out, and it is still a little too far out to determine where it’ll stall out. The stalling location of this front is going to be very important in determining whether or not we’ll see rain or snow in the region. This is important because a low pressure centre will move up from the Plains and head towards the region for Tueday-Wednesday. As of now, I am expecting that the backside of the this low will bring snow into the region, but how much I am still forecasing on.

So that is two chances of snow showers in the region to make for a white Christmas…but we have yet another chance that will come at the last minute on Friday. This will be a cold front, and we want that cool air to stick around to allow for the entire precip of that to be snow. Remember…all this is for a white Christmas. It more than likely will be dry on Christmas this year, and possibly cool with near average temperatures, but the question is going to be whether or not snow will be on the ground or if we’ll just see baren ground.

So with the time approaching, tomorrow morning I am going to have a lot more information on all three of these systems. I did a lot of forecasting this evening on the system, I am feeling fairly comfortable with them at this point, and I’ll share that information to you all at 5.30 a.m. tomorrow morning when I revise the forecasts yet again. I’ll keep you updated as always but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.