GREAT LAKES WEATHER: An Active Next 7 days.

16 December 2011

An Active Next 7 days.

The weather across the region today will be fairly calm compared to yesterday. A few lingering snow showers possbile in the eastern half of the region this morning, otherwise nothing much going on in the region at this point. Temperatures are rather cooler right now then they were this time 24-hours ago. Yesterday morning, Fort Wayne was about 25° warmer than what they are right now. Eastern half of the region is about 20° cooler than what they were this time yesterday. So the cold front did make its presense know. Now we have a week full of active weather on its way, and

An upper level trough which will be deprived of moisture will come riding down from the northern Plains. This upper trough will be enough to kick up some lake effect and scattered snow showers throughout the region on Saturday evening. The models have chances a bit higher for snow, but for now, I will only keep them at possible because I do not think the moisture content will be as high as the models expect. This upper trough will actually make a glancing blow towards the region, but this will be enough to reintroduce clouds and snow showers into the region on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

Upper trough will pass through the western half of the region by Sunday and this will allow for clearing in the eastern half of the region. The eastern half of the region will still have to deal with some spotty lake effect snow showers as that trough will not have moved entirely through yet.

Here is where the forecasts get fun, and today, over half of my forecasting time will go directly to the forecast for Monday-Wednesday (so that is where the revisions will happen, so really make sure that you check back). A high pressure will develop in the southern states and this will effect the region. Now this high wont keep the weather that cool, but it is going to keep the skies generally clear for the first half of Monday. But it isn’t going to have total dominance over the region. Enter, a cold front.

A cold front along with its upper trough will come out of the Plains and head towards the region on Monday. This front is a little tricky as where the 850-mb temps will be at this point are a little questionable – this is one of the reasons why I’ll be doing some intense forecasting this morning. The front will start to stall out in the region, and where it will stall will be dependant on the high pressure to the south.

The high pressure will start to slip to the east but very slowly. Now this means that the front will continue to stall out in the region. This will allow for waves of low pressure to ride along it and these will bring rain/snow showers late Monday and throughout the night on Monday depending on where in the region you are. To be honest, looks like the eastern half of the region is going to miss out on the majority of Monday’s excitement from the front, but they will get a little precip from a different source, but more on that later this morning.

A low pressure centre will develop along the stationary front and this low will head towards the region. The course of this low is going to be fun to forecast for, as any little slight divience will be the difference between rain and snow. Now the low pressure will head off to the east of the western half of the region and this will give the western half of the region some snow. Just how much, well that is also what I’ll be working on this morning.

We will also see another cold front try to work into the region for Friday 23 December. But more on that later this morning.

I’ll be revising the forecasts throughout the morning, so be sure to check those out. I’ll have a brief update coming up around 7.30 a.m., but the majority of this morning will go to forecasts. My next Facebook update will be around 3.30 p.m. this afternoon. I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.