GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Winter already?

30 November 2011

Winter already?

The low pressure is moving out of the region this morning and only some lingering snow showers (and a few rain showers) remain in the region. Looks like the Fort Wayne is done with the precip as some breaks in the clouds are already starting to occur this morning and then Toledo area will have to wait another hour or two for those clouds to start breaking. Who is next in line for those snow showers? Cleveland. Cleveland right now is reporting some light rain, but those are going to quickly change over to some snow showers.

Buffalo will be the last place in the region to see some precip, however it’ll be a mainly quick burst from the backside of this low. Looks like mainly between mid morning and early afternoon is when it’ll happen, there will be no accumulation and then the skies will start to clear this afternoon as well.

A high pressure is starting to build in from the west and that is going to really calm the region down this morning in the west and the region as a whole this afternoon. This high pressure is going to allow temperatures to drop like a rock tonight with that radiant cooling and its in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area tonight where lows will dip down around 20°, maybe into the upper teens. Seems like the seasonal change has arrived.

Now the weather is going to stay calm for the majority of the region tomorrow, but there is just one little short wave that will ruin it all. This short wave trough will mainly keep the precip to the north of the area – like into the northern Michigan – but the clouds will move into the region from this. The clouds will not hang around for very long, but they will be just enough to keep them into the forecast. A stray snow shower (or possible rain shower) might develop out of this on Friday afternoon in the region, but it is a slight chance and shouldn’t be anything to be concerned about.

However what is grabbing my attention this morning is going to be another upper level trough which will spawn a surface low pressure that will move past the region over the weekend.

The low pressure will not be as strong as the one that we saw yesterday, but it will be enough to produce some precipitation in the region. It will develop out of the central Plains and then move past Chicago on Sunday, dragging a cold front through the region on Sunday afternoon/evening. This is where the majority of the precip will form. Now the question right now is will it be all rain or a rain/snow mix? Regardless, it wont be that much in terms of totals, but it will be something that I am going to be keeping an eye on. I’ll do further forecasting on this throughout the morning, and I’ll be revising that half of the extended forecasts around 7.30 a.m. this morning in regards to the low. So be sure to check that out.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! I'll have another post coming up around 7.30 a.m. this morning when I do a quick revision of the extended forecasts in regards to our next low. Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.