GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A Seasonal Changer!

29 November 2011

A Seasonal Changer!

Well this system that we’re seeing right now is definetly a season changer. This low pulled warm air up from the south as well as polar air from the north, and though it tried in vain to even out the regional temps, the chilly polar air ended up winning. We’re seeing rain showers right now across the region, and in the western half of the region they are gradually changing over to snow showers – already in the Fort Wayne area and trying to do so in the Toledo and Detroit areas this evening. The cooler air that will build up behind the low pressure system will win out over the next couple of days and temperatures are going to have a hard time recovering.

The worst part about this system is trying to find the proper wording for the forecasts and updates, so if things get confusing or hard to follow, I do apologize but it is all for a lack of a better vocabulary.

Right now, we’re on the backside of this low pressure system, which is why the precip is the way it is. Tmperatures are still above freezing in most regional locations right now, and that is making it nearly impossible for that snow to accumulate. What we’re waiting for are the temps to dip down into the lower 30’s and once that happens, the snow will start to accumulate in the Fort Wayne area. However, by the time this happens, the snow showers will have started to lessen up and become more scattered which means that the prime snow showers will have already left the region. This doesn’t mean that Fort Wayne wont be seeing anything, I am expecting that the snow showers will be able to hang around long enough to give the Fort Wayne area about 1-2 inches of snow.

Toledo area will be seeing the rain showers trying to hang around this evening, but those are starting to transition over to snow showers as I type this. The temperatures however – as well as the somewhat warmer ground – are going to hang just above freezing for a little while longer which is going to really hinder that snow accumulation. This is why I am only giving the Toledo area about a half inch of snow fall, some places that are lucky will be seeing about ¾ of an inch. This snow fall will not stay on the ground that long as the highs tomorrow are going to push up into the upper 30’s.

So what does accumulate tonight and tomorrow morning will quickly melt late tomorrow morning as highs climb back into the upper 30’s…but then the high pressure really shows its presense when it builds deep into the region tomorrow night. I am talking about lows in the lower 20’s, possibly upper teens tomorrow night/Thursday morning. This high pressure is really going to cool things down across the region which means that with some radiant cooling tomorrow night…we’ll cool down.

A weak trough of low pressure will attempt to move through the region Thursday night/Friday morning but that wont really do much other than a few possible snow flurries. Then we’ll watch another area of high pressure build back into the region which is going to keep the region cool as a whole. This isn’t where the fun ends for we could be seeing yet another low pressure try to pass through the region on Monday and this one will be a tad interesting as well, although at this point I do not expect that it will be as strong as this one we’re seeing today. I’ll do much more forecasting on that system tomorrow morning and I’ll have more information on it then – meant to do some forecasting on it today, but I was a preoccupied with the current weather a little.

You see, this low pressure we’re seeing today is the precursor of the season ahead. It seems this was one final push of the warm air to keep its ground, but as we approach shorter days and longer nights the cool air wins out for the time being. So in a nutshell if you paid attention to the weather over the past few days, you just saw the near sudden transition to fall like weather…into winter like weather. Rather cool when you think about it (word pun).

I’ll have a complete update for you tomorrow morning at 6.00 a.m. both on the site and on Facebook. I’ll be revising the extended forecasts tomorrow morning at 5.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.