GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Change is Coming

28 November 2011

Change is Coming

Looking at the radar this morning, the rain shield from our wave of low pressure riding along the cold front (which will become stationary very soon) and the rain shield is pretty close to the region this morning. It is because of this that I kept a chance for a rain shower this morning in the western half of the region.

Erie and Cleveland today will see a brief break in the rain showers as that wave of low pressure passes by the area. Now the rain showers that do make it into the above mentioned this morning will be very light and those aren’t going to be a whole lot other than a few sprinkles really. The rain showers end right near the Erie area which is why they will mainly be light. So, now onto the weather ahead.

Overnight our upper low developed in the southern states and the surface low has continued to deepen just ahead of the front.

This upper low will continue to get more organized and this will become a closed low a little later on today. This closed low will allow for the surface low to deepen further and then send it further to the north this afternoon and overnight.

As this surface low deepens and makes a beeline the region, it will re introduce the rain showers into the region as early as this evening for a good portion of the region. Now these rain showers will start off as scattered and then late this evening they will become steadier.

Tomorrow steady rain showers will be in the entire region as that low pressure starts to near the region. The rain showers could be moderate at times, however the majority of the rain showers will be generally light. Now the big thing is going to be already moist ground across the region from the rains we’ve been seeing. This rain that we’ll be seeing tomorrow will be enough that some field flooding will be likely so do not be surprised if a few flood watches go up across the region this afternoon in regards to tomorrow.

Tomorrow night the low pressure centre is going to pass through the eastern half of the region, and this is where it will begin to undergo occlusionas the upper low slides over the surface low. This means that the surface low will reach its peak intensity near to the region and this is when the rain showers will be at their best. However, the low will be at a good enough intensity that it will pull down some cooler air from its north and possibly mix with snow showers tommorrow night. The snow showers that do pop up are going to compete with the rain showers and generally this will happen as the low pressure exits the region and the precip becomes widely scattered.

Mainly the western half of the region has the best chances for snow showers tomorrow night, however the ground will be too warm and the surface temps are going to have a hard time allowing for that snow to accumulate. Tomorrow night after midnight (so technically early Wednesday morning) the snow showers in the western half of the region will win out and we’ll be seeing some plain old widely scattered snow showers on the backedge of this low pressure as it exits the region.

Snow showers taper off in the morning across the entire region and then an area of high pressure will develop in the region and clear out for the entire region briefly on Wednesday night and Thursday across the region. This high pressure will also keep the region rather cool for Wednesday night as I am expecting lows to possibly dip back down into the lower 20’s pending the clearing in the skies happens early. But more on that later.

I’ll have a full update coming up on the site around 7.30 a.m. this morning, along with revised extended forecasts. I’ll update Facebook page around 3.30 p.m. this afternoon, but if things change drastically before that then I’ll update you all sooner on that. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.