GREAT LAKES WEATHER: 7.00 a.m. Update

28 November 2011

7.00 a.m. Update

A brief break in the rain showers this morning will be the only one we’ll get for the next 24 or so hours. The cold front is about to become stationary in the eastern half of the region which will allow for a brief wave of low pressure to ride along it later this afternoon. I didn’t make any changes to the daily forecast, so those are still valid.

Upper level low is becoming organzied this morning down in the southern Mississippi River Valley and the surface low is going well too. Sitting at 1007-mbs this morning, the low will continue to deepen along the stationary front before it begins to move towards the region.

As this low pressure moves in a near beeline towards the region, rain showers will be likely up ahead of the system. Look for rain showers to return late this afternoon and overnight tonight in the region where rain fall amounts will begin to climb once again. Warm air advection ahead of the advancing low will be minimal so I am not expecting any thunderstorm activity within this system as it moves towards the region. This will mainly be a rain event tonight and tomorrow.

As the low pressure centre nears the region, the upper level low will become a cut off low and it will position itself just about directly over the surface low. This is going to allow for the low pressure centre to undergo a little bit of occlusion as it enters the region.

Right now, I am expecting that by tomorrow evening the rain showers will start to mix with snow showers in the very western half of the region. Cool air will be brough down along the northwestern and western edge of this low which will allow for some mixing to take place. Then by about midnight tomorrow night in the western half of the region the precipitation will mainly become a rain/snow mix if not all snow. This sounds better than it will actually be as this will happen while the precip is tapering off and becoming more widely scattered.

I did make a slight adjustment to the Fort Wayne area forecast for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning as I am expecting that they will be seeing the best chances for a good turn over to snow. The ground will still be a little on the warm side, so most of the snow will melt, but not before a half inch or so of accumulation finds its way into the Fort Wayne metro area.

The low pressure centre will begin to slide quickly off to the northeast as the upper low begins to weaken and this is going to push just about all of the precip out of the western half of the region before noon Wednesday. This will allow for an area of high pressure quickly develop in behind the system and that will clear the skies out of the majority of the region on Wednesday night into the day Thursday.

Watching as the next trough of low pressure rides into the region on Thursday night/ Friday morning and that could give us a good chance of just plain old snow showers. Though I am not expecting any accumulation because surface temps will be above freezing and the ground could still be a little on the warm side to support that accumulation.

Just some typical November weather in the region.

Otherwise, not a whole lot going on in the region after that, looks like a ridge of high pressure will build up into the region for the weekend.

I’ll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always. I'll have a brief update coming up around 10.00 a.m.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.