GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Warm weather and storms

07 April 2011

Warm weather and storms

(Low pressure in IL and stationary front running along it, responsible for the rain tonight and tomorrow).

Well for the next 24 hours, we're going to watch as a somewhat weak low pressure moves out from the Illinois area and passes to the south of the region. This will bring in some rain showers for the region starting late tonight and through the day tomorrow. This rain will keep temps down into the 50's for much of the region tomorrow. But on the plus side, that low will exit the area tomorrow evening, and those rain showers will begin to taper off.

Now, here is the big thing that I am watching. We're going to watch a low pressure move out of the Plains, and it'll cross into the middle of the region on the day Sunday. This will usher in some much warmer weather, and places like Fort Wayne and Toledo will get close to about 80° on the day Sunday. However, with all this heating and the possibility for some unstable air will give those areas a chance for a pop up storm or two in the afternoon on Sunday. So that will be something I'll have to keep an eye on.

(GFS model for Saturday morning to Sunday evenign).

Now, the big thing comes on Sunday night. The low pressure will cross over the middle part of the region, and it's cold front will begin to enter the region starting on Sunday evening. This will give the areas of Toledo and Fort Wayne some good chances for some overnight thunderstorms. The SPC has some interest in the region during this time, and they are watching it just as closely as I am.

Will Sunday night and Monday morning be a good chance for some severe weather? It is looking possible at this time. As I was telling the people on my email list, I am thinking there is a good 60% chance that some counties in those areas will be under a severe thunderstorm warning at that point. The biggest threat from this system will mostly just be strong gusty winds from those storms, maybe some small hail, but nothing out of the ordinary. Of course, I will keep you updated during that time.

The biggest area of threat will be the areas of Toledo, Fort Wayne and areas just to the south of Detroit. It isn't going to be a big deal to be quite honest with you, its spring and we get these types of storms quiet a bit, so we all should be use to it to be honest.

The models are pretty much in agreement this morning over the path of this low pressure system, so that is some good news in a way.

So lets go over the timeline for these next couple days, shall we:

Low pressure from Illinois will start to move into the region later this evening, and that will bring some good chances for rain tonight and tomorrow. This rain will keep temps cool down into the mid 50's for the most part.

Low pressure exits the region tomorrow evening, and that will leave us with mostly cloudy skies and some breaks in the clouds on the day Saturday.

At the same time on Saturday, low pressure begins to move from the Plain's. Low pressures' warm front crosses through the region on Saturday night, raising temps into the mid 50's for an overnight low.

Sunday, the low pressure will enter the region and this is going to really raise those temps. Highs near 80° on Sunday for places like Toledo and Fort Wayne. Scattered thunderstorms could pop up late in the afternoon in those places.

Sunday night, low pressure crosses through the mid part of the region, this will bring its cold front into the area on Sunday night. Strong storms will be possible at that time, the biggest threat for me is going to be strong winds gusting out from these storms.

Monday morning, depending on where the cold front is, thunderstorms might still be lingering in the area. Otherwise temps will stay within the 60's for a good portion of the region on Monday.

So, a strong low pressure will move out of the Plains on Sunday, and it is going to crank on the heat as it pulls warmer air from the south into our region. Highs for some places in the region on Sunday might be near 80° so do be sure to check those extended forecasts for updates and more. It'll be a fun system nonetheless.

I'll of course be updating those extended forecasts later this afternoon to give you more information on it.

I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll be back this afternoon to update those extended forecasts and update you on the possibility of storm activity on Sunday night. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.