'Tis the season

(SPC storm prediction for Monday).

There are some indications at this point that we could be seeing some storms on the day for Monday in places like Toledo and Fort Wayne. A fairly good low pressure will come out of the Plains, and a strong jet stream is going to really push that low forward. This low pressure is going to usher up warm and moist air down from the Gulf and that will introduce some possible thunderstorm activity to the region for Monday.

(GFS model for Monday afternoon/evening for the upper level 300 mb winds. Notice the strong trough just to the west of Ohio).


(GFS model run for Monday afternoon/evening, the heaviest probability of precip will have already crossed through Toledo and Fort Wayne).

The SPC has issued Fort Wayne and Toledo under a 15% chance of strong thunderstorms for Monday. Not a high chance, but a good enough one for me follow this system closely. The majority of the strong storms will stay to the south of the forecast area (for example Cincinnati has a 30% chance, which is pretty good). If we do get any strong storms on Monday they will be mostly brief heavy downpours and possibly some small (size of pea or less) hail and maybe a brief wind gust over 40 mph. Here is the big thing however...if we get cloudy in the morning, which is possible, then that will kill most of our chances for a good storm and we'll mostly just see some rain. I will be following this system closely, and I'll definetly update you on it later this afternoon.

The other really big problem with this system is that it will be a quick one, a little bit faster than most systems, so basically there will only be a small window of opportunity for this system to give us a big punch. I am noticing that we might be a little to close to the low pressure to get a really good storm, but that might change as always.

So at this rate, you're going to notice on the extended forecasts that for Toledo and Fort Wayne I am calling for "Rain showers with thunderstorms likely" what this means is that either way we're going to see some rain, but we might not get those storms if it gets too cloudy. I will obviously redo my extended forecasts again this afternoon once the new model runs occur, surface charts come out, and when the SPC does severe weather forecast. So do check back later this afternoon or evening and things are going to be a little more clearer to understand.

Now onto todays weather. We're seeing what is left of that low pressure/trough making its way across Ohio right now. As far as precip is concerned, we could still pick up some rain showers this morning in places like Toledo and Fort Wayne, but in general it'll just be mostly cloudy with some clearing in the skies later this afternoon. Erie and Buffalo, due to the location of the trough, you could see a chance for some rain showers for much of the day, but it wont be a large chance, so do not go all out and cancel every outdoor plan you have for today...just keep an eye on those clouds. Highs around going to be in the mid to upper 40's across much of the region today.

Tonight will be somewhat quiet across the region the climate takes a brief break. However, tomorrow, the first of two lows (this one being the rain one, and the second being the one I spent 3 paragraphs typing about) moves towards the region, and that will introduce some rain showers to the region starting in the late morning and early afternoon.

So, check back for updates this afternoon and I'll keep you updated on the rain showers for tomorrow, and the possible thunderstorms for the day on Monday. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!