GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still the same

02 April 2011

Still the same

(SPC storm outlook for tomorrow).

Earlier this morning, I was typing about the possibility of some thunderstorm activity on the day Monday. And that is looking likely at this point, however how strong they will be is still rather iffy for the most part. The more heavier storms will definetly be to the south of the our region, however we could pick up an isolated strong storm from Fort Wayne to Toledo on the day on Monday.

This low pressure responsible for all this will be pushing warm air up our way rapidly starting on Sunday night. In fact, on Sunday night, places like Toledo and Fort Wayne are going to see temps increase overnight into the mid 40's for an overnight low. On the day Monday, we'll see highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's from Fort Wayne to Erie and the possibility of some thunderstorms. At this point, I still do have some concerns that it will cloudy during the day, and if it is, this will greatly hinder the chances of decent thunderstorms.

(GFS model prediction for Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Notice the strong trough and the temperature contrasts).

(GFS model predicts the front will have passed through Toledo and Fort Wayne at this time, however Erie and Buffalo wont have seen it passed yet...according to the GFS).

In general however, the worst thing that will happen (worst for those of you who dont like storms...best for those of us who do) will be some brief heavy downpours...maybe some small hail and the possibilty of some quick gusty winds from the storms. Nothing that we can not handle. We'll survive it, trust me.

The cause for all this is simple really. For Toledo and Fort Wayne, here is the scenario: Low pressure moving out of the Plains tomorrow, and it will have a warm front with it, a cold front (...as all lows do, seeing is how that is their physics) and it will be backed by a potent jet stream. Warm front crosses into the southern part of the region tomorrow night, and that will jack up those temps rather quickly. Rain showers will then begin to fall ahead of the warm front and after the passage of the warm front briefly. We'll then go back to cloudy for a little bit and await the cold front to pass through. The cold front will then cut through the region Monday afternoon and early Monday evening, and in doing so it'll bring gusty winds (most of which will be non-storm related), warmer temps and of course a few storms here and there. Once the cold front passes, we return to the that northwesterly air flow and temps are going to quickly fall back into the upper 30's on Monday night and we could see some lingering rain/snow showers for the Toledo and Fort Wayne areas. That a good enough discription for you?

Coming up later this evening, I'll be typing about any new develops I have concluded in my continuation of monitoring this system. And also, we'll take a look at what the middle and potentially the end of the work week will bring. I'll keep you updated as always, keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.