GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Rainy and stormy

18 April 2011

Rainy and stormy

Well the above graphic I have presented you with should just about the sum the weather up over the next two days. But I shall explain it to you anyways.

We're going to see a low pressure come out from the Plain's this evening, and it has already formed. The low is going to continue to deepen and then it will begin to move northeast (along the red arrows) tomorrow through Wednesday. In doing so the low is going to push that stationary front down in central Ohio northward, however this push wont be noticable in the region until tomorrow evening.

As this stationary front just sits there (hence the name, stationary) we're going to start to see more scattered rain showers move into the area later tonight and through the day tomorrow. Now these rain showers will be mostly light and they could have some embedded heavier rain showers within them, but mostly they'll be off and on.

Chances for those heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are going to increase for Detroit, Toledo, Fort Wayne and quite possibly Cleveland towards the evening hours as that warm front enters the region. This will quickly raise temps and will make that air very unstable...favourable for thunderstorm development. However with these rain showers tomorrow, we could get a rumble or two of thunder around the afternoon...but in general the storms really wont try to develop until around the evening hours.

Now, at the same time, we're going to see that low pressure move over southern Lake Michigan and into lower Michigan, so that tailing cold front will be near by. As of now, I am thinking that most of those storms are going to happen along the cold front if they do form. The biggest threat with the storms of course will be small hail and gusty winds. That is really about it. The SPC has the biggest threat for severe weather south of the region (that area is highlighted on the graphic). I as well am not going to expect that too much activity in the way of storms is going to happen, but it will still be possible that we could get a scattered strong storm or two anytime between tomorrow night and Wednesday morning in the Toledo, Fort Wayne, Detroit areas along with some places just to the west of Cleveland.

Once that low pressure moves out of the region, we'll be looking for a high pressure to attempt to set up down to our south and west, and in doing so, that'll give us a brief break from the precip, however it will all return in the region yet again on Thursday evening.

So biggest chances for strong storms in the region will be for the locations of Fort Wayne, Toledo, Detroit and areas just to the west of Cleveland. That chance will be on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Rain showers with some scattered/embedded storms...small hail and gusty winds will be the primary threat from these storms.

Late Tuesday night and into late Wednesday morning, I am going to be expecting that some of those storms (if they do form) will be making it towards Cleveland and the Erie area. Some of these storms too could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. That is again the primary threat for strong storms in that area.

Buffalo, if you're lucky this system will still hold out for you and give you a decent chance for storms early Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon. Again, looking at the main threat from these storms to be just small hail (seeing as how I do expect the freezing level in your area to be rather low).

Finally Green Bay will...see snow...about 3 inches of snow. Oh well.

So, tomorrow morning here is what I'll do for you all. I am going to update those extended forecasts and then we're going to get right into this system and what I expect that it will do. Again, I am not predicting an outbreak of any sort, nor I am expecting anything too major...but we've been behind on our storms for this season, so I have to make this amusing some how. I'll get you those extended forecasts updated for the region and again we'll take another look at the possible storms that could get into our region. That will be coming up tomorrow morning around the 6 a.m. Update.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.