GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Lack of a title

22 April 2011

Lack of a title

Alright, by far tonight will be the most amusing night in terms of weather for the region this weekend. We're going to see the best chance for storms and rain showers late tonight and very early tomorrow morning, and some of those storms could be strong. The recent forecast done by the SPC has Fort Wayne under a "slight risk" and they seem to have bumped their slight risk region up into parts of NW Ohio. However, they still really expect that most of the strong storms are going to happen to the south of our forecast area. From what I have gathered, that sounds pretty legitment, I am not expecting that we're going to get a whole lot in terms of strong storms for our region, but we could get some regular storms from it later this afternoon and definetly overnight tonight.

What can we expect from these storms? Rain. But aside from the rain, we could get some small hail from them and maybe some gusty winds from a couple of these storms, but if anything we'll at least get another good lightning show tonight. I am thinking that the majority of the good storms wont show up until after that warm front passes through, which it will enter into the region around the midnight hours. This warm front is really going to bump up those temps into the lower 50's for the areas of Fort Wayne, Toledo and even Detroit could get bumped up a little. This will make that air a little unstable, so it will support some storm activity. Again, the big storms are going to stay south of the region, but we could get a single strong storm or two within the cluster of rain showers and small thunderstorms...but nothing to be overly concerned about at this point.

So here is also how I expect this to go down. We're going to see scattered rain showers and some embedded storms throughout the region this morning, afternoon and this evening as we'll be waiting for that warm front to move into the area. That will make the air good for storm activity. Our low pressure will then quickly come out of the Plain's this afternoon and head towards our region, it will also have a tailing cold front as just about all low pressures do. This cold front will start to slip into the region later tonight and tomorrow morning, so that will produce some storms. The storms will more than likely be quick moving, so the biggest concern for the storms at this point will again be small hail and gusty winds. Once this cold front passes through tomorrow morning in the region, Fort Wayne and Toledo will go into a brief break in terms of temps. Cleveland wont see the front until about mid morning or so. Erie and Buffalo wont see the cold front pass through until the afternoon more than likely.

As far as Erie and Buffalo are concerned, I do not expect that you guys are going to see a whole lot in terms of storm activity seeing as how the low pressure will go too far north and west for you guys.

The only two places I am thinking will really see storms is going to be the Toledo and Fort Wayne areas and that will be later tonight and through tomorrow morning. As of now, I feel as if I have beat the dead horse in telling you all when I expect the storms to arrive. So now I will tell you about what will happen with the rest of the weekend.

We got yet another system that is going to effect us and that too will give us another chance for rain and possibly some thunderstorms on the day Sunday. Now the extended forecasts are a little high for me right now in terms of precip, so later this morning I might be updating them, but for now I will keep them at where they are at. This system is also going to allow for some warmer air to be brought up from the south as the high pressure that is going to briefly set up over the region on Saturday moves out of the area. Remember, high pressures have a clockwise flow, so as it moves to our east, it is going to bring some of that warmer air from the south up our way.

Now, this is not going to come free, just like most of the warm weather this time of the year. Recent models have shown that a fairly interesting low pressure will develop in the Plain's again and it could very well impact us on the day Tuesday. Now, of course that is about 4-5 days away until this system actually gets to us, so I will be keeping an eye on it though, because that too could give us some rain showers and as of right now I am thinking that it will. It is also going to give us some warmer temps as well, seeing as how it will have a warm front that could very well move into the region. This system will have to have an eye kept on it as well. So do keep checking back for updates on this one, because who knows, it could be an actually exciting low pressure (not that the ones we've had have been boring).

So for the day today, scattered rain showers for pretty much the entire region today, and some of those scattered rain showers could have a few rumbles of thunder in them later this afternoon. But the biggest chance for storms will be overnight tonight as a low pressure from the Plain's moves our way. Some of the storms could be strong in the Fort Wayne area, however I expect that most of the area from Fort Wayne to Toledo will just see regular storms.

I'll keep you updated on this system and more as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! I'll have more coming up later this morning, so keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.