GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Evening Update

07 April 2011

Evening Update

(Present surface chart and radar. Rain showers in the Iowa/Missouri area are moving our way).

(Regional radar image at 8:24 p.m. Rain showers off to the west moving our way. Quick band of rain showers crossing slowly into the region right now).

Warm front south of the region right, and that will try to work its way northward as a weakish low pressure from the Plain's passes just to the south of the forecasted area. This will introduce some rain showers to the region tonight in places like Toledo, Fort Wayne, Detroit and possibly Cleveland tonight. However, just because your city wasn't mentioned doesn't mean that you wont be seeing those rain showers. Nah, you'll just get them tomorrow as well.

The low pressure will be a normal speed type and is rather simple compared to most lows I forecast for. It is going to slide south of our region tonight and that is all their is to know about it. High pressure over Ontario (which is responsible for the return of this warm front) will be heading east over night tonight and that is going to give the warm front some free range over the southern part of the region tonight.

Erie and Buffalo, you might not get those rain showers because of the location of the low pressure, but like just about everyone else tomorrow you'll be seeing those rain showers tomorrow as well, so dont think you're missing out on all the fun.

As that low pressure moves to the south of the region tonight, we're going to see those rain showers move over to the Erie and Buffalo regions tomorrow, however the chances wont be as high as other places seeing as how those rain showers will be just a little but more to south.

The rain showers will exit the region no later than midnight tomorrow, and that means that the day Saturday should just be mostly cloudy across much of the entire region. But dont let this fool you. We'll be watching our next low pressure move out the Plain's tomorrow night and on the day Saturday.

Warm front from the low pressure will push up northward on Sunday, and this is really going to introduce this warmer weather to the region on Sunday. Highs in Fort Wayne and Toledo, possibly even Cleveland and Detroit will be in the mid to upper 70's, and some of you might even get around 80° for a high on the day Sunday.

This low will then really speed up a bit as it crosses into our region on the day Sunday. Cold front extended from the low pressure will introduce some scattered rain showers and some thunderstorms which have caught the attention of the SPC. I am still debating on how far east this chance for those stronger type storms will go, and I wont have an exact answer until the morning update tomorrow. However, either way this wont really be anything too major for us. Timing is also going to be a little crucial with this system as well.

However, I am going to give this system a 60% of producing maybe a severe thunderstorm warning here and there from Fort Wayne to Toledo on Sunday night and into Monday morning. The biggest threat with this system will be some gusty winds, and pellet sized hail, nothing much else other than night...except a nice lightning show. So nothing to be overly concerned about and nothing to write a will over, because you'll be able to handle this.

So rain showers likely across much of the region tomorrow (minus Green Bay) and that could mix with some light embedded storms. Those rain showers will exit out of the region no later than midnight tomorrow. We then go to mostly cloudy for much of the region on Saturday, and then on Sunday temps will get to around 80° for a good chunk of the southern region, and Green Bay might even get into the 70's as well. Sunday night and into Monday morning, scattered thunderstorms will be likely, and a few could be strong, but the biggest threat will be some gusty winds from the storms and some pellet sized hail.

I'll have more coming up tomorrow morning on the Morning Update, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.