GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Close call

12 April 2011

Close call

(Low pressure down in Kentucky is responsible for the rain that could impact Erie and Buffalo later tonight as it shifts NE later today towards the East Coast)

Today a low pressure will pass south of the region, however it wont be going away. Nah. Instead, once this low pressure gets about as far south as it needs to go, it will then make a sharp turn northeast towards the east coast. It is getting a little stronger, which doesn't really mean a whole lot for us other than the fact that it will produce some rain fall along its northern edge.

As it does so, this low pressure at the same time will move northeast and its northern edge/western edge will cut very close to the Erie and Buffalo region tonight and tomorrow...possibly even Cleveland might get some rain showers, so I am going to add scattered rain showers, slight chance though, to your daily forecast for this afternoon and for the evening possibly.

The problem will mostly be rain in places like Erie and moreso Buffalo later this evening and overnight as that low makes its way towards the NYC area. The western edge of this will have some rain with it and it will drop some of it over the Buffalo area. Simple yes?

Well for the day today, mostly clear skies this afternoon for much of the region. There might be a few stubborn clouds from this low pressure down to our south as it passes by, so Toledo...Cleveland and maybe Erie could see a cloud or two in the sky later this afternoon...but generally clear. This evening, those clouds will really start to increase from Cleveland to Buffalo as that low makes its turn. High pressure will try to build up across the region over Lake Michigan at the same time, so that will keep that low pressure away from Toledo and points westward this afternoon.

Tomorrow, that low will be making its move towards NYC and in doing so, that means that rain will be likely overnight tonight and tomorrow morning across that area from Buffalo to Erie.

Do you get it yet? Erie, Buffalo and possibly Cleveland get rain today...most people west of those locations wont.

Warmer weather tries to return to the western portion of the region tomorrow and Wednesday, but another system coming in from the Plain's will introduce more rain showers to the region on either Friday or the weekend. So that will be something that I will keep an eye on for you. Doesn't look like much right now, models are still a little iffy on the long term portion. It does look like it will be an nice organized pressure system, but for now I am going to keep all chances for ain as this low pressure from the Plain's develops. Of course, if need be I will change those extended forecast in accordance to what I expect this low to do.

However, the big kick in the face for all of us will be once that low pressure passes...depending on where the high pressure behind it will be...how cool are temps going to get? Cool enough, I think for some snow flurries to fall up in Green Bay towards the end of the week, but at this point nothing will accumulate...way too late for that.

Could return to normal temps, and perhaps below temps yet again towards the end of the weekend.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.