High pressure setting up across the region right now and I am watching as that high pressure will dominate the weather for much of the region for tonight and tomorrow. Now, here is the catch: The low pressure is right where it is suppose to be at this time. Sitting at 991 mbs on the North Dakota/South Dakota border, that low pressure has a well defined warm front which is extending into the Midwest and a cold front which is rolling through the Plain's. This low pressure is going to move east-northeast tonight and tomorrow and we're going to see that infamous warm front and cold front impact our area soon here.
In fact, that warm front is already going to be effecting the Green Bay area tonight and tomorrow as clouds are increasing for you guys and rain showers are on the way. This will be due to that warm front, which will also begin to effect the region tomorrow night as it moves towards our region.
When this warm front cuts through the region late tomorrow, it will introduce some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to the region, mainly in the Fort Wayne and Toledo area after midnight tomorrow night (late Saturday night). The chance isn't going to be very high, however there could be some scattered rain showers and/or thunderstorms in the region after midnight. Nothing will be strong, they will just be normal thunderstorms at their best.
Things do not end there, nah. The cold front is going to be moving through the region, taking its precious time in the process, and I am expecting that by early Sunday morning we could be seeing those rain showers already enter the region. The chances for rain showers and thunderstorms will increase as the morning continues, and those chances are going to enter the western part of the region as well.
Cleveland and Erie, you're looking at your chances for rain showers and thunderstorms to really start once the sunrise hours roll around and you'll have a fair chance of rain and thunderstorms for much of the day.
Buffalo, looking like your chances for rain and thunderstorms wont arrive until a little bit after sunrise, and for you guys too those rain showers and thunderstorms chances will remain rather fair throughout the day.
Will this be a complete washout? No, I am not expecting that at this time, what I am expecting though is scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to be around for a portion of the day. My biggest challenge right now is determining if they'll only form ahead of the cold front or if they will form way ahead of the front and just decide to hang around the area for a good portion of the day. The other challange that I am still having some hesitance about is whether or not this front could become stationary for a little bit or whether or not it will just move slow as it crosses through Ohio. Lets go over the scenarios of both options:
Stationary: Rain through Monday night for much of the region, along with some thunderstorms.
Slow moving: Chances for rain ending Monday morning and we'll see the region dry out for the afternoon on Monday.
For right now, I am leaning more towards the front being just a slow mover, and that is what my extended forecasts are going to be based off until I get other indications from the next model run that it will be stationary.
Either way we're going to get some precip from it and I do expect that this front will clear the region no later that Monday night, whether it goes stationary for a while or whether it just slowly moves through the area. The only difference between both scenarios will be an additional (or un-additional) 12 hours of precip chances.
Now the chances for precip I am going to just call "possible" for Saturday and Sunday because I am not expecting that they will be all over the place...they will just be here and there for the most part in the region. Again, I am not expecting everything to be a complete all day rain event, nor do I expect it to be one of those...storm...10 minute break...rain...ten minute break...storm, events. So, hence why everything is going to stay possible for right now.
So for right now, lets go over a timeline of events for tomorrow and tomorrow night...
Tomorrow morning: Mostly clear skies in the region for the morning across the region as that high pressure starts to slide out of the region. Clockwise flow from the high pressure will usher in warm air from the south into the area. Rain showers in Green Bay will be coming to an end for the most part in the area.
Tomorrow afternoon: Some increasing clouds in the Fort Wayne area, and some afternoon clouds in the Toledo area as highs get into the lower 70's because of that high pressure moving out. Skies will still remain clear in the region from Cleveland to Buffalo. Rain showers in Green Bay coming to a complete end and then skies will begin to clear over in that area.
Late tomorrow afternoon: Skies will become rather cloudy in the western part of the region from Fort Wayne to Toledo as we'll see some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing off to the west of the forecast area. Skies will remain clear in Green Bay, however increasing cloud cover in Cleveland and Erie with some clouds moving into the Buffalo area.
Tomorrow evening: Mostly cloudy skies in Fort Wayne, Toledo and Detroit as scattered rain showers and thunderstorms could start to develop well of to the west of the region. Temps will remain mild as the warm front will have passed (or be near) the area at this time. Skies becoming mostly cloudy in Cleveland as well. Off and on clouds in Erie and Buffalo.
Tomorrow night: Skies becoming cloudy in Cleveland as well. Scattered rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible in the area from Fort Wayne on up to Detroit and down to Toledo and some places just to the west of Cleveland. Cleveland should remain dry for the most part overnight. None of the storms will be strong, and they wont be continuous overnight and as long as you keep an eye on the radar, you should be fine for the most part.
The big chances for rain and regular thunderstorms will be during the day Sunday. So, that is something I will update you on again in the morning and let you know if anything has changed to my forecasts and such. So, for the most part, mostly clear skies across the region (rain showers in Green Bay) for the night tonight and for the first part of the day tomorrow.
Toledo and Fort Wayne extended forecasts have been updated at 8.35 p.m. All extended forecasts will be updating tomorrow morning around 6.30 a.m...like I do every morning.
As always, I'll have updates so keep checking back for those. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!
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