GREAT LAKES WEATHER: April showers and moody warm front

06 April 2011

April showers and moody warm front

(Low pressure weakening as it crosses into the region, this will be responsible for the rain showers in the region today and possibly tonight).

We have a weakening low pressure moving through the Plain's right now, and it will give us the chance of rain showers throughout the region (minus Green Bay) during the day today. Highs will vary depending on where you are because of that wind, but in general much of the region will be between 45° and 55° for a high today.

Already starting to see those rain showers to the west of Detroit and a little bit to the north of Toledo. The frequency of these scattered rain showers is going to increase throughout the day today, so most of us should see a couple of rain showers during the day today. This system is going to continue to slide east over to the Cleveland and Buffalo areas today, and in general you'll see those rain showers possible throughout the day today and possible for a good chunk of the evening. There could be a couple embedded storms within these clusters of rain, but in general it will really just be a rain event seeing as how the clouds are going to prevent much lift from taking place to help those storms.

Now as this system crosses through the region, it'll end the rain in Toledo and Fort Wayne most likely before midnight, however Cleveland and Erie and Buffalo might see those rain showers possible until the sunrise hours tomorrow. It wont be much to be overly concerned about seeing as the rain showers will mostly be light.

For the day tomorrow night things are going to start to get a little tricky with the forecasts as we have a warm front that will push up from the south of the region and usher in both some milder air and some more rain showers and possible thunderstorms. Here is the tricky part...if that warm front stalls, and if it does...where will it stall? That will be something that I will have to keep you all updated on. Either way we are going to see some rain showers tomorrow night across a good part of the southern region, but the question is what will the front do on Friday night?

There are some indications that this warm front will stall possible over the Fort Wayne, Toledo and Cleveland areas (this will happen on between Friday morning and Friday evening) and if that is the case then things are going to get really tricky to forecast for, but I'll make sure that I get them accurate for you so you dont get caught off guard. So this afternoon, I'll be updating those extended forecasts yet again and update you on the situation with the warm front.

(SPC expecting there might be some "strong" thunderstorms in the region on Saturday and Sunday).

Either way the weekend is looking like it'll be mild across the region, however scattered rain showers will be probably across much of the region over the weekend. Now will we get storms in the area over the weekend or on Monday? It is looking like a good chance that we might. Now will they be strong or not? It is a little too early to make a decent call on that, however we will have a higher chance of stronger storms on Sunday and Monday than what we did the other day. Does this mean the end of the world? No, it doesn't, but it will be something that I will keep you updated on.

Otherwise, at this point because of that warm front, I am going to keep the chances of rain showers and thunderstorms in the extended forecasts for a good part of the region, however I will change that this afternoon once the new surface charts the new model runs when they come out. So by this afternoon, I will know completely the path of this warm front, what it'll do and what we'll get from it.

The other big kicker to this forecast will be the warmer temps, places in Toledo, Fort Wayne and Cleveland might see temps in the mid 60's possibly near 70° on Sunday and Monday, and that will be something that will bare watching because that could support some nice storm development.

So coming up later this afternoon, I'll be updating you on the path of the warm front, where I expect it to go and what I expect it will do. So do check back this afternoon, it'll be vital for your weekend plans. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.