GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A Rainy Next Couple of Days

17 October 2012

A Rainy Next Couple of Days

Forecast for today in the region and over the next couple of days is going to be a tad bit on the tricky side. The system itself isn't what is going to be causing the problems, it will be the timing of the system and the associated rain showers that come along with it.

Right now we have a high pressure in the eastern half of the region, but that is beginning to weaken a tad and move out of the area. Over in the northern Plains is a low pressure which is going to rapidly deepen (get stronger) and head down towards Minnesota and eventually over Lake Michigan by tomorrow afternoon. Now this low pressure system will have a front with it, but the thing about this low pressure system is that it will undergo occlusion (max out) over Lake Michigan which means that it will be staying with us for a few days.

In short terms, this means that rain showers will be in the region, and depending upon where you are is going to determine what part of the system is giving you the rain showers. For those in the western half of the region, after the initial passage of the cold front tomorrow afternoon, we're going to watch the centre of the low pressure near you guys. This means that a little bit of instability along with some cooler temperatures will make for a cool and dreary day (sounds reasonable, right?). However, because of this, the rain showers are going to be mainly widely scattered.

Looking over at the eastern half of the region, after the initial passage of the cold front, the rain showers will be coming from a slightly different source: the lake. The flow from the low pressure will actually help in bringing cooler air over the lake which is going to help produce rain showers. Those too will come in the widely scattered sense, but nonetheless they will be there.

Everybody will get some good solid rain showers before hand as that cold front passes through the region tomorrow and tomorrow evening. There may be a few thunderstorms embedded within them, but nothing at this point to make me put them into the forecast.

So with all that being typed (hopefully I explained it well enough), we know that for the next few days...rain showers are going to be everywhere. This low pressure system has no intentions of staying just for one day, it will hang around into the weekend as well. Everybody will get rain showers from the cold front, and then the western half will see rain showers from the centre, while the eastern half will get them from the lake. I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll try to get another post up this afternoon, so make sure that you check back for that. For now, however, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.