GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A Weather Jam...

01 September 2012

A Weather Jam...

For those who've checked my extended forecasts, you're noticing that there is a lot of chances for rain showers in the region these next few days. Why? Well, we've entered a forecast that is going to be somewhat active and very finicky, and a slight adjustment in either direction will make a huge difference (more or less). Here is what is happening right now in the region:

Isaac, who surprisingly is still a tropical depression, is located right in the middle of Missouri. Isaac is a rain maker, as most tropical systems are, and he has plently of rain to bring with him. But there is a problem to his plan. You see, to the north of Isaac is this mass of cooler air, a cold front, and it's travelling down from its parent low - which is all the way in E Canada - and that front is coming into the region. Behind the front is a nice sized high pressure.

Like Isaac, this high pressure (we'll call it #1...) wants to move SE...but it can not right now. Why? In Georgia, we have a bigger high pressure (we'll call it #2...) and it likes where its at right now. So we have two highs trapping a front and a tropical depression from moving. The cold front is going to stall out as Isaac feeds off it. This will happen later today. And it is here the rain is going to really begin to develop.

Isaac will cause the front to stall out over Ohio, the low in Canada will try to pull it, but long story short on that: the front will become flat-lined just south to the region. With High #2 ushering in the moisture and warmer air ahead of Isaac, who is going to use it's already present moisture - as if it didn't have enough - and mesh it together and create a nice rain event. Here is the catch though: the cold front. When this front stalls out, three things will play a vital role in the forecast: location, location, and...time. Just kidding, the third is location.

If the front stalls out too far to the south...we aren't going to get anything. If it comes too far north, eh, we'll have a decent rain event on our hands, that's for sure. But for now, at least the northernly position is looking less likely (I know, a bummer right for all of us who like awesome weather events). The reason the front is going to be vital, is because the rain shield with this is going to be very, very, sharp. Such that, one place could get an inch of rain, but just 30-miles to the north another place got like...0.10-inches. So yes.

Isaac and the other systems will stall out for the next few days, so once they get into position...they aren't moving a whole lot, save for a few fluctuations of the stationary front (formerly known as a cold front a few paragraphs ago...). The systems won't move until about Wednesday when a cold front from another location pushes everybody away.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.