GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A bit of a jam...

22 August 2012

A bit of a jam...

A bit of a jam for the next couple of days when it comes to the weather in the region.

We're watching an upper level trough push through the region this morning. Yesterday, that trough was mainly responsible for the rain showers and thunderstorms that developed in the region (mainly between Toldeo and Erie). There is still a chance that eastern Cleveland and western Erie areas and inland Erie areas could pick up a small stray rain shower or thunderstorm (or both) later this afternoon as the trough slides on through, but mainly those chances aren't going to be very big. I mainly put them there as a caution, so if you have outdoor plans today...at least keep the rain jacket in the car. I am just expecting that perhaps with a bit of instability this afternoon and some other factors, a stray pop up storm or rain shower will be possible in those areas. Nothing big though. How about the temperatures in the region though?

Well, it feels a bit like fall doesn't it? Today, the region is going to be centered on the backside of this trough...which means that cooler air is going to be brought down into the region. This is why places like Toledo are sitting at 50° this morning, and even into the upper 40's in some spots. The patterns will continue as a high pressure develops and becomes even stronger over the eastern half of the region...but this is where the problem develops.

The high has no intention of leaving the region any time soon. And this high pressure will be blocked by another high pressure over the Atlantic and there is going to be a jam. The weather still wanting to come in from the west will have no where to go...but definetly not the region because that high pressure is in the way. The high will actually slowly drift to the east...about 100-miles at most...and that is going to actually bring some of those warmer temperatures into the region. For those of you who remember me saying constantly over the summer "east side of a high is cool, the west side is warm" because of the way the air rotates around the high. Upper 80's are going to be likely in the western half of the region, and in fact I may even bump Detroit and Buffalo up a little bit for the weekend, depending on how today goes. On the plus side, the high won't usher in those tormenting hot temperatures into the region, so things will stay generally in the lower 90's at worst. So a little "relash" from summer as we head into fall in the region.

So when will this pattern break? Towards the end of the weekend I am expecting. Looks as though that high will actually move out (and hopefully die in the process) and that will allow for the regular pattern of low pressures to move into the region from the Upper Plains. Looks like one front in particular going into Monday could give the region some rain showers and thudnerstorms, however I'll do more work with that later this afternoon as the new charts come out.

Ok, so for those of you who survived this whole post, I have something interesting to share with you all. This morning around 7.10, I caught glimpse on the radar of something that is always neat to watch (especially on radar loop). Flocks of birds waking up for sunrise to go and feed. This happens every now and then if the radar is one the right setting, we are able to see birds...and sometimes bugs if its enough of them.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you this afternoon.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.