The weather across the region is going to be somewhat picky over the next couple of days, and even into Wednesday (4th of July). Here is how it is playing out in the region over the next few days:

To the south of the region we have a large high pressure which is casting an upper level ridge across the majority of the Plains and the Midwest. This ridge is allow for those temperatures to remain well above average, into the 90's constantly for highs, in the western half of the region...and by the way, I see no signs of relief for that. With the upper level ridge occupying the majority of the land to our south, this will cause problems for any low pressure that would like to come through. We're going to watch an upper level low try to push through the region, but it won't be able to get down as far south as it would like because of the high pressure. This means that a frontal boundary will be in the region.

The frontal boundary in the region is going to allow for a couple waves of low pressure to develop along it and move through the western half of the region. The boundary is in an awkward spot, and it is apparent in the extended forecasts if you checked those out. Really, the only places that the boundary will be effect is all places west of Erie. Erie and Buffalo will be a little "behind" the frontal boundary (for lack of a better term) so the forecast for them is a little bit easier. So why is this frontal boundary important?

Anything that forms at the top of the ridge or within the boundary will move through the boundary. Basically put...it's like a highway for anything that forms. And as mentioned, a few waves of low pressure will try to find their way towards the region using this boundary. Especially tomorow.

Tomorrow we're going to watch some of this energy sit along the frontal boundary - which will have a surface stationary front - hence why storms will be possible in the region tomorrow...along with hot temperatures in the western half of the region too.

So, how will all of this effect your holiday? A weak cold front is going to push throught region between Tuesday and Wednesday, and this'll allow for things to actually quiet down in the region for the holiday and even a day or two afterwards...though temperatures will still remain hot in a lot places. Here is a look at the Fourth of July weather in the region:

Buffalo: Off and on clouds in the morning with a few lingering rain showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly before noon. Decreasing clouds throughout the afternoon will give way to mostly clear skies by the evening. Mostly clear overnight. Highs in the mid 80's with overnight lows in the mid 60's.
Cleveland: Mostly clear throughout the day and overnight with a stray early morning storm or rain shower possible. Becoming mostly clear in the evening. Highs in the mid 90's with overnight lows in the upper 60's.
Detroit: Off and on clouds throughout the morning will give way to decreasing clouds throughout the afternoon, becoming mostly clear by the evening. Mostly clear overnight. Highs in the mid 90's with lows in the mid 60's.
Erie: A lingering rain shower or thunderstorm possible in the early morning, then becoming mostly clear in the afternoon. Mostly clear in the evening and overnight. Highs in the mid 80's with overnight lows in the mid 60's.
Fort Wayne: Mostly clear throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 90's with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's.
Toledo: Mostly clear throughout the day and overnight with a stray storm possible in the early morning. Highs in the mid 90's with overnight lows in the mid 60's.

I'll keep you updated as always, I'll be revising these forecasts a little bit later this morning, though it won't be any major changes, mainly just time tweaks. But for now, that's the weather!