07 July 2012

OUTLOOK FOR FWA, TOL, DET, CLE: Thunderstorms will be possible in the region this afternoon and into the evening hours as a slow moving cold front pushes itself through Michigan/Ontario (where it is now) and begins to head our way. As of now, I am expecting that things are going to remain quiet for the next couple of hours as we presently have a cap of air preventing much from developing right now. However, this afternoon the sun and the heat will erode that away and we're going to watch as some storms start to fire up. Now remember what I said yesterday about how if a system like this is going to kill the heat, it has to be a good one? Well, this one might get a little interesting this afternoon. As far as severe storms are concerned, I am not expecting all of the storms to be severe. I am expecting that a couple of them to contain perhaps some gusty winds (10-15 minutes at the start of the storm where winds could gust to perhaps 60-mph) and then of course some hail (pea to quarter sized) and heavy downpours. The storms will come scattered this afternoon and move generally from the NW to SE, though the direction of the storms is a little bit difficult to tell right now. So, once again, here is what I am expecting in the western half of the region today: Temperatures are going to soar once again into the upper 90's and lower 100's across the western half of the region. A slow moving cold front is going to move into the region from Michigan and start to affect us more so this afternoon and into the evening. Convergence and instability along with lift and moisture should be enough to help produce some storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. Looking for a good majority of those storms to be regular storms, but a few of them will be strong to severe with small hail, winds gusting briefly to 45 to perhaps 60-mph at times) and then heavy downpours which might cause for some pondage on the roads. The storms will be scattered, and I am not expecting that there will be a line of storms, just a scattered storm event. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Updates will continue and be frequent for the next few hours.

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