GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Interesting week ahead

15 July 2012

Interesting week ahead

The weather over the next couple days will be interesting in the region:

Right now, we're watching an upper level trough get ready to push through the region. This upper level trough is getting plently of assistance from an area of high pressure in the SE. This high pressure is pulling up warm and moist air from the SE and pushing it ahead of the upper level trough. At the surface, a small low pressure centre will drag a trough, which will eventually evole into a cold front, towards the region. This cold front will help advection take place ahead of it and we're going to see some rain showers and perhaps a storm or two in the region today and tonight. Now the western half of the region has questionable chances, but the chances in the east are looking a bit more favourable. Why? Just the timing of the system. The upper trough right now can be found extending from Sault Ste. Marie, ONT. down to Chicago right now. The western half of the region will not see a "Washout", but scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are going to be possible, mainly this afternoon.

Looking at the weather for tomorrow, an area of high pressure is going to slide in from the upper Plains, and though it'll be short lived and get absored by the SE high, it'll be good enough to keep the weather calm in the region for the day tomorrow and for parts of Tuesday. As this high pressure starts to fall, the high in the SE will get stronger and start to influence the weather a little bit closer to the region. However a low pressure with a cold front is going to move down from Canada, via the Plains, and head towards the region.

Tuesday night and into the day Wednesday, the cold front nears, the temperatures anmd moisture will make for an interesting run of advection in the region (I'll type more about this time slot later). And that will create rain showers and thunderstorms in the region. But there is one thing that is going to get a little interesting: the area of high pressure behind the front.

As you may or may not know, high pressures are dense...a high pressure can push a lower pressure out of the way (lows are less dense), but when two areas of high pressure with the same density meet...nobody moves. The cold front will make it to about the Ohio River and then perhaps stall out as the SE high pressure holds it ground and the Canadian high does the same. What does that mean for the region? Well I will have to look further into this and work more with the high pressure, perhaps the front will stall out closer to the region, and if it does...more rain.

I'll be working on the forecasts throughout the morning and early afternoon, so make sure that you check back for updates, because I'll have them. My extended forecasts will be revised a little later this morning. For now, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.