GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Finally, a Cool Down

08 July 2012

Finally, a Cool Down

I am happy to announce that the heat wave in the region is finally over. A cold front pushed through the region earlier this morning, and that allowed for the temperatures to drop a little bit and is allowing for the NW flow of the upper level trough to finally move into the region and help usher in some cooler air. Points east of Cleveland up to Buffalo today will see a nice lake shore breeze as the winds will be coming out of the N to NW throughout the day today. Highs in those areas will only be in the lower 80's. Places in the west however will still be a little bit on the warm side with some lingering humidity and highs getting into the mid to upper 80's, but nonetheless tomorrow will be a bit cooler. I am still going to hold onto a lingering rain shower in the region until about noon today, just because I still feel as though there is a little bit of instability and moisture left to perhaps allow for a stray rain shower to developing in the region. But for the bulk of the region this morning, it'll be off and on clouds, which'll decrease this afternoon and give the region mostly clear skies by the
afternoon.

By far the past week has been difficult forecasting, and this ridge of high pressure never made things easy. So hopefully my forecasts were helpful and accurate for those of you who planned your day using them. Now, some lingering question as to what happened in Toledo the other day with that storm. Well, after going over some of the reports and some of the radar images, the main thing information wise that I am lacking is precip reports from around that area. However, I am thinking that this is what happened with that storm. It was hot during the time of its formation, it was into the mid to upper 90's around the Toledo and Sylvania area during the inital stages of the storm. The storm didn't have much pushing it along its path and this caused for it to move rather slowly. At the time there weren't many storms yet around it, so this allowed the storm to have free access to whatever conditions it wanted (warm and moist air). This allowed for the storm to increase in intensity rather quickly and develop in size. The instability continued to support lift. However, the downside and the eventual downfall of the storm was the fact that it was a slow moving (nothing was pushing it along). Anyways, the storm was able to use this lift and moisture to produce a good amount of rain fall. As these air parcels rose and condensed, and fell back as rain, the rain was cooler (having just come from an altitude where it was much cooler). With all this heavy rain coming down nearly at once - in an area surrounded by hot temperatures - it didn't take much for the rain cooled air to force itself upon the hot air. This is what created that wind. Eventually, however, the storm and its slow speed did cause its own demise as it started to run out of the conditions and ingrediants to keep it alive. Developing storms along the outflow of this storm also helped in weakening the storm. But nonetheless, the heavy and excessive rain in the localized area surrounded by hot air was enough that it caused those gusty winds. Now on to the weather ahead.

With the ridge of high pressure collapsing in the region, we're going to watch a surface high pressure move down from the NW in the Plains and then into the region. This high pressure will allow for temperatures across the region to return to normal/average for this time of the year. Though it won't be like fall, it'll definetly be a relief. The downside to all of this, is that the high pressure will be dragging in drier air and from what I can see for now in the charts I have looked over, I am not expecting a chance of rain within the 5-day forecast period. That isn't good, because for those of you who remember me talking yesterday, a good portion of the region are technically in a classified "drought" ... although, nothing exceptional at this time, and the majority of this drough will be "short term" but that is a whole other topic which we won't get into.

So a few days or normal and cooler weather in the region as the NW flow of that trough and the surface high pressure help to keep the regional weather cool.

I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always!

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.