GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Still soggy

01 June 2012

Still soggy

The region got some rain yesterday, though it mainly arrived in the evening in the west and overnight in the eastern half of the region. Looking for that rain to continue in a good number of places throughout the morning, with the exception of Fort Wayne who seems to be drying out. Skies will remain cloudy for the most part today across the region, though a few breaks of sun could happen in the west, but not many. Lets go ahead and take a look at this system:

Centre of the low pressure right now is down in the Muncie, Indiana area right now. It is trying rather hard to not pull in the dry air from the high pressure in the Plains, but that doesn't seem to be going over very well for the low pressure. The low pressure is also trying to max out, so expect a little bit of retrograding (moving backwards - you just a learned a new weather word today) this evening/tomorrow morning. The interesting thing about this system for us is our location to it.

The centre is to the south of the region, and this means that the fronts are as well. Right now, we're to the north of the warm front, which is helping give us the rain. As well as the fact that we have a surface trough moving along with the low pressure centre as well which helps the rain out. Now, before the low moves backwards later today, it'll move to the northeast first, towards the Detroit or southwestern Ontario area. This means that for the western half of the region...those fronts aren't going to push through. However the eastern half of the region will actually see them. This does mean that some storms are going to be possible this afternoon in the eastern half of the region, however they'll be weak and more than likely embedded within the rain showers. So nothing to worry about there if you don't like storms. If you like storms, head to the DC area where the same front will produce severe storms down there.

Here is the thing about this system though, it isn't alone really. It is accompanied, naturally, by its upper level trough. This trough is going to sit over the region for a tad bit longer than the surface low pressure. This will allow for that surface low pressure to actually get "stuck" (for lack of a better word) in the region over the next day or two. The low pressure centre is going to move about the southeastern Michigan and southwestern Ontario areas during the weekend. This is where the forecast gets a bit tricky.

Tomorrow. Tomorrow will be cloudy throughout the region, and the front will be moving through the last places in the eastern half of the region during the day tomorrow. However, this doesn't mean that the weather is going to quiet down. Hardly. There is going to be a wave of low pressure that'll ride along the upper level low and this is going to help spark up some rain showers throughout the region tomorrow. To help in the eastern half of the region as well, looking at some northwest winds to blow off the lake and allow for some rain showers to develop. It is almost comical how we couldn't get a system to do this in the winter, but we can have it happen in the summer when it can not produce snow.

The tricky part for tomorrow afternoon is going to be how much dry air will have filtered into the western half of the region. The rain showers that do form as a result from the upper level low might also be accompanied by the diurnal heating. This will make for a very spotty rain shower event. Now, I am not expecting that tomorrow is going to be a big washout, but it'll be something that could put a "damper" (weather pun) on your outdoor activities. I'll of course type more about tomorrow's weather later this afternoon because I know of a lot of people who have outdoor plans tomorrow.

The weather in the eastern half of the region for the remainder of the weekend does look questionable as well as that low pressure will still be influencing the weather that way for the weekend and start to the work week. Aside from the Cleveland and Erie, I am generally confident with the overall forecasts. I'll do some revisions to them in a little bit, so make sure that you check back for those. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.