GREAT LAKES WEATHER: A classic summer time set up

09 June 2012

A classic summer time set up

The weather across the region for the next few days is actually relatively easy in a way, but its a bit tricky to word, so lets hope I can word it correctly:

Right now, we have a ridge of high pressure moving into the region and this is putting the region in a northwest flow. This northwest flow has allowed for a wave of low pressure to ride down along it ("A ridge rider" as we call them in the weather world) and produce some rain showers over in the Erie and Buffalo areas this morning. Those rain showers will be around for a good majority of the day today as this wave of low pressure is still moving through.

In other places of the region, we're watching this ridge of high pressure live up to its standards. Just to our south at the surface level, we have a high pressure which is keeping the weather calm and dry for the western half of the region. However, this is also allowing for the high pressure to push up warm air into the region (and some moist air to create the muggy feeling) and that is why temperatures are going to be warm today and tomorrow. Highs across the western half of the region will push 90 both today and tomorrow, and overnight lows show no relief.

As this ridge of high pressure crosses over the region tomorrow, we're then going to watch the other side (the trough) move towards the region late tomorrow night and into the day Monday. You may ask "What did he just say?" - I told you it wasn't easy to explain. Picture a roller coaster, ok. It goes up, then down, then back up. That is how the jet stream works. We're on the "BIG HILL" of things. The suspense and sometimes the bordem if you've rode the ride before. However, there is the big fall...the excitment of the ride, the roller coaster. (Now just picture all of that happening backwards and the jet stream will make more sense...sort of).

The trough of low pressure from the upper levels will push into the region tomorrow night and early Monday morning. This will allow for an area of low pressure to develop at the surface and pull a cold front towards the region. The weather then gets a bit more difficult to explain from this point onwards, so I won't both trying to explain that.

So what does all this mean? Simple: Rain showers and thunderstorms possible in the region late tomorrow night, during the day Monday, overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning for some in the region. With the passage of the cold front across the region, by Wednesday temperatures will begin to drop back down to normal (and possibly a degree or two below normal for that matter). Looking at highs in the western half of the region on Wednesday to be only around 80, with the eastern half barely pushing 75.

At this point, I am not expecting that any of the storms will be strong or severe, but I'll do a little bit more work on that this afternoon.--So a classic summer time set up in the weather for the region. The only tricky part really is going to be the timing, but for now, I am feeling rather confident with the times, and I will adjust them this afternoon if need be. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.