Well, all week it's been known that the weather was a bit boring, but since yesterday things have become a tad bit more on the interesting scale. The forecast gets a little bit complex, and if all goes the way things are looking, the forecasts might need to be revised to be generalized, rather than detailed. Let's look into it shall we:
We have two weather systems that are going to affect the forecast region during the period from Sunday night into Wednesday morning. We'll watch a cold front push through the region along with its wave of low pressure, then we're also going to se a second system - which is looking like it'll be another wave of low pressure - come up from the southeast. They both feel like entering the region at roughly the same time...which means the biggest challange for the forecasts is going to be timing...which means that the wording of the forecasts will be a bit tricky as well.
The first system will ride in from the west, a weak cold front. This front will begin to head towards the region on Sunday night, and this will start to introduce clouds into the western half of the region. The clouds won't be extensive, but they will be around. I am thinking though that the ridge of high pressure over the region during this time will still be dominant enough to keep the weather dry during this time.
Monday morning is going to roll around, and this is when things start to get tricky. Depending upon how much moisture this front has to work with as well as the intensity of the front, will all determine whether or not we get scattered rain showers, scattered thunderstorms, both, or just clouds. Highs are also going to be a hinderence. Now during this time as well, that second system from the southeast will start to head towards the region, and this is going to begin working with the cold front. During this time as well, the cold front should be able to clear Fort Wayne, however it looks like it might become stationary or fall apart. One would normally allow Fort Wayne to clear out after the passage of a front, but this time...it's a bit tricky to so.
By Monday evening, there is a good chance that scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be around the entire region. Now will this be a washout? Not exactly. I am thinking that the storms and rain showers that do form will be far apart, or in weak isolated clusters...or possibly a very weak line. It is a bit tricky to tell at this point, so further work on this will have to be done. The cloud cover during this time will be a bit interesting as well, the region will have either off and on clouds or mostly cloudy skies - either way though, that won't make a whole lot of difference in the forecast other wording.
Tuesday becomes a bit more trickier in the region. Lingering rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the region, however the cloud cover will once again play another important role. Temperatures will also be a bit lower during the day Tuesday with highs generally in the 70's for the region (the rain showers and the cloud cover will make it hard for those temps to get too high).
Wednesday afternoon is when the forecast gets easier because by then, both systems will have cleared the region.
So with all that being typed, the scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are going to be possible in the region for Monday and Tuesday, and possibly for the start of Wednesday.
I am not expecting a storm outbreak, or a flood event so do not hold your breath for that. Right now, the biggest challange, like I mentioned earlier, is simply timing. The tracks of the systems aren't hard to pin down, but the timing is where the pressure is (weather pun). Due to the time needed to revise the forecasts, this will more than likely be the only post for the day. However, those forecasts will be revised throughout the morning so make sure that you check back for those. I'll keep you updated as always, but for now, that's the weather!
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