GREAT LAKES WEATHER: More rain!

31 May 2012

More rain!

Just to let you all know, normally I say the forecasts will be revised before noon...and somtimes it doesn't happen, well today they will definetly be revised around Noon, so make sure that you check those out. Ok now to the weather:

The weather across the region is going to start getting busy here over the next 18-hours in the western half of the region, and by this time tomorrow morning...pretty much the entire region will be seeing rain showers or getting ready to get them. We're watching a low pressure system coming out of the Midwest this morning and that is hitching a ride with its upper level trough. The system is moving towards the region, and yes, this means rain. Now we are going to be lucky because we'll be very close to the centre of the low...and this will keep the fronts a little bit away, which means that we shouldn't have much blocking the rain showers for us in the region tomorrow.

The low pressure centre will continue to gradually head towards the region today and this is going to start to allow the clouds to move towards the region. At the same time, we are going to watch a surface trough associated with it move through the region, which help the rain showers develop in the region later this afternoon.

Looking at the radar this morning, the surface trough has done some in prompting cloud cover and very light rain showers (according to the NWS-IWX radar) out over the Indiana/Michigan border this morning. I will keep an eye on those, but those shouldn't do much for now. The rain showers won't really start entering the region until this afternoon, but we might still be able to pick up a stray rain shower just a tad bit before that. Oh well.

So tonight that system will really move in closer to the region. In fact, it'll enter Indiana. This means that the rain showers will basically fill into the entire region during the overnight hours. Not expecting any storms at this point, but I will work some more on that.

Tomorrow morning, the system pushes into Michigan, and some drier air will "accidently" move in from the Plains, get sucked into the low as it undergoes a form of occlusion over Michigan. This will allow for those rain showers in the western half of the region to start tapering off by around Noon tomorrow, but they'll still linger around. The eastern half of the region...well, the lake isn't going to help keep things dry in the air and the dry air won't be as potent at that time, so expect the rain showers to be spotty during the afternoon over in your area as well, though you too will start to see a little bit of a break.

Tomorrow night...things will be a little bit on the quiet side. Still some rain shower chances, but it'll mainly be cloudy.--Saturday, things get interesting with a wave of low pressure riding along the upper trough over the region. Spotty showers possible, and I'll type more about that later.

I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll have another update, some graphics and post before noon. For now, that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.