GREAT LAKES WEATHER: MARCH!

05 March 2012

MARCH!

Alright, so a lot of you this morning in the western half of the region are waking up and wondering where all of this snow came from. Well, it looks as though our upper level trough was a tad bit on the heavy side...which gave us about an inch to two inches of new accumulation around places like Toledo. Still waiting for the snow reports to come out this morning, that'll be another hour or two before those come out, but once they come in I'll have a better idea of what happened. I do apologize for the lack of monitoring on this system, I didn't expect much from it other than some flurries. Now lets go ahead and look at the weather for the region this week.

We have an upper level trough moving out of the reigon this morning with a surface low located down in the south near West Virginia. Snow showers will linger in the western half of the region this morning as some additional moisture is pulled off Lake Michigan and mixes with the cooler air in place of the region. The snow showers will remain light, probably won't be seeing those large flakes like we did yesterday, however an extra inch of snow will be possible this mornig in the Fort Wayne and Toledo areas if things go the way are going...but all accumulations will stay under an inch.

Tomorrow, the system will pull fully out of the region during the morning, and this will allow for a surface ridge to develop. This ridging will pul warmer air into the region, and though a high pressure will be setting up close by to the region, it'll be to our east which means that we're going to be seeing warm air from it. With the advection provided by this system, looking at temperatures on both Tuesday and Wednesday to really begin to go above normal. The warmer temperatures aren't going to last that long - despite Fort Wayne and Toledo possibly hitting 60-degrees once again on Wednesday - as we're going to see another system get ready to head towards the region.

This next system is going to come in the way of a cold front which will move down from the Plains. This front is a little awkward with timing, however I am expecting that the bulk of the precip will stay ahead of the front. What that translate to is simple: rain. Looks like the region is going to be to in the wrong spot again this week and we're going to see rain on Thursday.

The front will be a quick moving one however. It will not waste a whole lot of time in the region, and a quick passage is going to be expected. I am still wondering if a chance of thunderstorms will be possible with this, but for now I will keep it as all rain and will monitor later charts. Otherwise, once this system moves out of the region, we're looking for slightly above normal temperatures to remain in the region with clearer skies.

So really this week has some straight forward and simple forecasts in the region. Just an exiting trough moving out of the region, and then a high presure ridge during the middle of the week, and then rain towards Thursday...and then calmer weather for the weekend.

I'll keep you updated as always. I'll be revising those forecasts on the site once again around 7.30 a.m. this morning, and I'll have them normal Noon Update. My next Facebook update will not be until late this afternoon. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.