GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Afternoon Update

09 March 2012

Afternoon Update

Upper level trough pulling out of the region will allow for one more night of cooler weather as a high pressure centre moves into the region. Lows tonight in the region will dip down to around 20° overnight tonight with mostly clear skies in the majority of the region. There will be some lingering snow showers and flurries in the eastern half of the region this afternoon and early evening, but as that upper level trough pulls out of the region things will start to calm down and clear up throughout the overnight in the Erie area, possibly not until tomorrow morning for the Buffalo area. Otherwise tonight will be fairly quiet in the region.

Upper level trough will have exited the region, and then we’re going to watch the ridge of high pressure begin to develop as that surface high slides to the east of the region tomorrow. That will allow for temperatures in the region to start warming as the warm air is pulled into the region. Highs tomorrow looking like they’ll get into the mid 50’s in the western half of the region, however there is still some question on whether or not 60° will be possible…for now, I will keep that number out of the forecasts. The high pressure tomorrow will actually keep the weather fair and calm once again, and it might get a little breezy in parts of the region, but in general I am expecting that the winds shouldn’t be all that much as of yet – though I will keep an eye on them.

Upper level ridge travels through the region tomorrow and this will allow for the weather to stay calm, but then we’re going to watch our next system get ready to develop and enter the region and this is where the rain returns into the region. We’ll watch a low pressure system develop in the central Plains during the day Sunday. With the high pressure still affecting the regional weather during the day time on Sunday, the low will have a hard time getting its cold front to move close to the region. This doesn’t mean that clouds won’t start developing, and it appears as though the clouds will increase late Sunday afternoon and during the evening.

The low pressure begins to head almost directly to the north-northeast which will allow for its cold front to begin moving towards the region. This cold front, though it won’t be strong, will provide enough lift and moisture that we’re going to see some rain showers developing towards sunrise on Monday morning.

Widely scattered to regularly scattered rain showers will be possible throughout the day on Monday as this front tries to push through the region. There will be some lingering rain showers out behind the front, that is for sure, but they won’t be very light. Despite the fact that a cold front will be pushing through the region, it isn’t going to cool the temperatures in the region down a whole lot, and it’ll be a slow moving front as well. Looking for highs to possibly drop back down into the 50’s for the day Monday, but then they’ll quickly go back up as another high pressure ridge returns. Looks like the region will be seeing above normal temperatures next week as we’ve been seeing since basically November.

That's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.