GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Winter is here!

11 February 2012

Winter is here!

It is feeling like winter outside this morning, we have snow and gusty winds and that equals blowing snow throughout the region. The winds are going to only increase further from the north as the day goes on and that front continues to plow across the region. The interesting thing about today...is that a year ago we had our seasonal low temperatures for the 2010-11 Winter Season. Actually, it happened on 10 February, but nonetheless, this time of the year is starting become liked by me. So what can we expect in the region for the rest of today? Lets go ahead and take a look shall we:

We have a nice sized upper level trough moving towards the region at this time and with it are those cooler temperatures. The front passed through at the right time in the western half of the region that my predicted highs might actually be a little too high. Looks like a lot of places in the west are going to have a hard time getting past 20 for a high today. With those winds coming out of the north, we’re also going to see wind chills rather low tonight, possibly going below 0 through the morning. The issue for today in the western half of the region isn’t going to be snow, and actually not that much has fallen. Really, the most snow that has fallen is only about 2-4 inches in the western half of the region, but that wind is really making it look like a lot more.

Snow showers in the west will linger around through the morning hours, but then we’re going to watch those taper off and only flurries will remain at times. There might even be some brief clearing in the west this afternoon, but mainly we’ll stay cloudy.

The eastern half of the region today, your highs are going to occur this morning (like right now) and then once that front passes through, you’ll join in on the excitement and we’ll go with temperatures falling into the lower 20’s by noon. Snow showers are going to really kick off once that front passes through the eastern half of the region because lake effect snow showers will develop behind it. Because of this, the warm lake waters, cooler air aloft and the gusty winds, this lake effect event will be lasting longer than originally expected and you guys in the Erie and Buffalo areas are going to pick up some decent snow fall totals...which is nothing unusual for you guys.

Upper level trough slowly moves through the region tonight and tomorrow, and then we’re going to slowly warm up a little bit - albeit staying below average through Tuesday - and then we’re going to watch a warm front push through the region which will put us at 40 by Tuesday in the region. Now, the week ahead is going to be a little active as we’re going to watch two low pressure systems affect the region. Looks like the first one will be here by Monday night/Tuesday morning. The first one will give us snow, but the second one will more than likely give us a rain/snow mix. The first one is going to be a little tricky with accumulations because the temperatures are going to end up being rather finicky throughout the course of that system. Looks like little accumulation for the region from the first one. The second one is going to be annoying, and I’ll deal with that one later.

So today, not very active in terms of forecasting revisions. Just watching that front move through the region, producing snow showers and winds. There will not be an update until about 7.00 p.m. this evening, however if things change drastically I will update you all sooner. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.