20 February 2012

What a Busy Week

Today will be the last calm day for the next couple of days as our high pressure is still dominating the regional weather and keeping the weather calm and clear...and a little on the cool side as well. High pressure did its job yesterday in keping that low pressure away from the region. There were some clouds that snuck in, but those didn't last very long and we ended up with mainly clear skies for the majority of the day in the region. Today, expect mainly clear skies, but after midnight tonight, the clouds will roll back in as our next system gets ready to enter the region.

We're watching a low pressure centre develop in the Plains this morning at the base of the Rockies, and this low presure will track towards the region. With it will be a cold front and a preceeding warm front, both of which will give us rain...unfortunetly. This low will move quickly as it comes towards the region and we can expect that late tonight the western half of the region will start to see those clouds increasing. Eastern half of the region will actually remain fairly clear overnight tonight, and it won't be until tomorrow morning that those clouds start arriving in the eastern half of the region. The clouds are going to come in fast, and they will be quickly followed by our rain showers.

The rain showers will likely start off as an initial push of steadier rain showers. Then towards the afternoon in the western half of the region, those rain showers will actually become fairly scattered. Temperatures will be fairly tricky tomorrow as well, as the rain cooled air wants to keep them low, but the warm advection wants to rise them. So for now, I am just going to settle with the 40's.

Tomorrow night, the rain showers will taper off as the cold front swings through the region, however this cold front isn't going to do much to cool us down. The rain showers will briefly mix with snow before tapering off, but that won't accumulate much. Temperatures will only bottom out in the 30's, so not expecting that much cool weather. The clouds will not go away either, which will aid in keeping those temperatures fairly mild for this time of the year. Here is why that is going to happen.

Tomorrow, that low pressure will not actually pass through the region. It is going to stay well to the north and more than likely head towards Minnesota. This means that the cold front will not have that push of cooler air behind it that we'd typically expect to see. Translation, this low pressure is going to pull a cruel joke on us all.

The weather will stay calm for the day Wednesday...at least the first half of Wednesday, and then we're going to watch a trough push through the region which will introduce some scattered rain showers in the evening on Wednesday.

At the same time on Wednesday night, we're going to watch another low pressure centre develop. This low pressure centre is going to be another one that will affect the region with both rain and some snow. Now the snow from this system won't accumulate because once again the temperatures are going to be too warm for that to happen. However, nonetheless the rain showers and snow showers will be around in the region on the day Thursday and even into Friday.

Sounds like a busy week, huh? It is. Why?It is hard to explain, but in simple terms...we have a persistant upper level low which is staying over Ontario this week, allowing for waves of low pressure and troughs to loop around it. We're right at the base of it, so we're going to be seeing them. Trickiest thing this morning is really going to be the times...because the times will determine whether or not some of this precip becomes snow...or whether or not it all stays rain. So, I'll be touching up those forecasts throughout the day, so make sure that you check back for those. I'll keep you updated as always, and I'll have a regular Noon post. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.

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