Perhaps one of the busiest weeks I have ever had the fortune to forecast for...the kind of week where it takes me about 15 minutes to determine which rain showers are from which system. We're going to watch a series of low pressure centres moving through the region, with the first one being today and the last one being on Friday. These systems are going to be differnt in their own aspect, and the Friday one right now actually has the majority of the my interest. However, let us get with the weather for today as we watch this first pressure affect us.
First off, we have an upper level trough siting over Ontario/Manitoba this morning and that upper level trough is going to be the main cause for all the weather excitment that we're going to see over the course of the week. Today we're going to watch a low pressure centre move out of the central Plains and head into Minnesota...where snow and winter weather will be likely up there today...actually freezing rain will be their biggest concern. However for our part of the weather, we're going to be seeing rain. The low pressure centre will remain to the north of the region and this is going to cause for warmer air to seep into the region. This warmer air, though not record breaking, will be enough to keep all the precip as rain ahead of and even behind this confused cold front extending off the low's centre. The rain showers will actually start off today as steady, and then they'll become widely scattered (normally we see the opposite, but oh well).
The western half of the region will be the first to get the rain showers. Current radar showing the rain showers making their way through Indiana right now and producing storms down in Kentucky (we won't get the thunderstorms). The rain showers will arrive in the western half of the region this morning, right in time for the morning rush in Fort Wayne and areas just to the west of Toledo, and then they'll move their way towards the eastern half of the region. The rain showers will be fairly light, but could be moderate at times, I am expecting rain fall totals to generally stay below a quarter inch. The rain showers will then become scattered once the initial push of rain showers makes its way through the western half of the region, so this afternoon the west will be seeing widely scatered. The eastern half of the region will see the bulk of the rain showers arrive around the noontime hours and then they'll become scattered late this afternoon/evening - much like the western half of the region has seen.
Tomorrow is going to be a tricky forecast day for the bulk of the region as the system will have passed, but lingering precip could be around. Depending on where you are at with this system, you might see a rain/snow shower mix possible tomorrow morning, but generally the main feature is going to be rain showers. The rain showers that do linger around tomorrow morning will generally be very light and very widely scattered. Then we might be able to pick up a brief rain shower late tomorrow afternoon in the western half of the region, however I will be doing further forecasting on that throughout the morning and I might actually drop that chance. At the same time tomorrow, we're going to be seeing our next system start developing and getting ready to head towards the region.
This next system is going to be an interesting one, and this one will try its best to put us back to winter...if we've even really had a winter in the region.
Tomorrow evening and Thursday, with the upper level trough where it is, we're going to watch a low pressure develop and sneak out of the northern Plains and head towards the region. This one actually resembles an Alberta Clipper...only a bit on steroids. This low will once again stay barely to the north of the region, but I am thinking there will be enough cool air in place to help introduce some snow showers back into the region. The low will arrive on Thursday afternoon, bringing its fronts with it that will naturally produce precip. Ahead of the front will be rain showers, which are going to be likely for a good chunk of the region. These rain showers could actually be heavy, so I am going to be monitoring that throughout the morning as well, so make sure that you check back for updates on those rain showers. The low pressure will move quickly and then it'll pass through the entire region by the time Thursday evening rolls around. Once it does this, this is when the weather will make an attempt to put itself back into winter like weather with some snow and cooler temperatures.
Thursday night and Friday, we're going to watch the low pressure's cold front swing across the region, and in doing so, it will start to change those rain showers over to snow showers during the evening hours on Thursday. Temperatures are going to drop behind the front as well and we're going to see lows get down into the 20's overnight during this time. The clouds are going to complicate things a little bit more, but nonetheless the temperatures will get low. The snow showers that do end up being in the region...they will be tricky. I am not thinking that they will do much in terms of accumulations - as of now at least - because the ground could still be a little too warm, but it will be interesting to see what the 09Z and 12Z charts have to say about this.
Friday night and Saturday, we'll watch the last bit of this system pull out of the region and then we're going to watch cooler air filter down briefly into the region, putting our temperatures pretty much back to normal for a day or two.
So...a busy week huh? I also failed to mention the few weak waves of low pressure in the mid to upper levels that could come through the region...but I think you all get the picture.
Now due to the time and amount of energy needed to make these forecast, this will be the longest post of the day. I am going to have a quick Noon Post, but the majority of my time today will go to the revisions of the forecasts. I'll have those revised before 11.30 a.m. so make sure that you check those out. For now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I'll have them for you as always.
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