GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Trying to turn to winter

01 February 2012

Trying to turn to winter

Where to begin this morning? Cold front moving through the western half of the region this morning, and it hasn’t arrived in the Fort Wayne area quite yet, but it will do so in a little bit. Temperature contrast behind the front is noticeable and not that far away. Looking at temperatures in Fort Wayne at 48 right now, but looking back in Chicago the temperature is 37. Even South Bend is reporting 39 right now. Looks highs in the region will occur mainly this morning and then we’ll fall back into the upper 30’s this morning and then slightly recover into the lower 40’s and mid 40’s this afternoon for a little bit. Cloud cover portion of the forecast will be a little bit tricky as well as the high pressure that would normally follow suit isn’t going to be where it is suppose to be. For now, I’ll just go with off and on clouds in the region, despite periods of clear skies, the clouds will still be around.

Cold front will continue it journey across the region this morning and early afternoon. Ahead of the front will be some light rain showers, but once the front passes then all chances for the rain showers will be out of the region.

High pressure today is going to slip a bit to the south in the Plains and then it’ll turn our way and move into Indiana/Ohio by tomorrow afternoon. This high pressure will work to bring in some drier air, but the clouds will still be around depending on where you are at. The cloud cover isn’t going to be thick, so I am might actually drop some of the clouds in the forecasts later today (for the Thursday-Friday forecast period) but regardless it isn’t going to be that exciting of a high pressure. Temperatures will still be running a tad above normal in the western half of the region, but the eastern half of the region is going to attempt to sit at near normal temperatures as a mass of cooler air slides through the New England area. However, nothing to extreme in terms of temperatures for the weekend.

Now we do have another system that is grabbing my attention this morning, and despite the appearance of this low pressure system, it is starting to become a very tricky system to get a hold of this morning.

A well defined upper level trough is going to push out of the Pacific and move into the Rockies this afternoon and evening. This trough of low pressure will begin to develop its upper level low which in turn will actually aid the development of a surface low down in the base of the Rockies around the Colorado area tonight and tomorrow. As the high pressure retreats of the region on Friday night, the low pressure will begin to have free range of basically the entire central half of the country. As to the intensity of this low pressure during this time, it won’t be strong-strong, but it’ll be something noticeable. The forecast begins to get tricky with this system as that high pressure that will have affected us tomorrow, will have retreated back to the northern Plains by the time Saturday morning rolls around. This high pressure will provide a block (for lack of a better word) and the low pressure won’t be able to penetrate it (dense air always holds out against less dense air). This will mean that the low pressure system will not do a typical hook we’d see with a low like this.

Low pressure will eventually slide to the south of the region and do a basic west-to-east course through the beginning of the week. This is where the forecast gets a little tricky because there is some uncertainty this morning as to how far north the precip will make it. For now, I am actually going to try to keep it out of the Detroit, Erie and Buffalo areas, but I am still leaning for a chance - especially in the Fort Wayne area - for Saturday night through Sunday. Will it be rain or snow? That is debatable at this time as well. We know that the Plains will definitely see some snow from this system, but some people are also going to see rain. I did give Fort Wayne a more diurnal pattern when dealing with this system, however it is starting to appear that this system is going to give us either one or the other...probably not both. If we do get snow from this...it will not be much. That high pressure will make sure that we do not get that much of anything from this system in all honesty.

The high pressure will be getting stronger during this time as well, and that is going to start holding some cooler air with it. Some interest I have this morning is whether or not this high will actually decide to slip into the region...and if that happens we might get to just about average with temperatures...maybe a degree or two lower, but nothing that much.

So, still a little uncertainty with the forecast for the end of the forecast period, but I should have those kinks worked out by the Noon Update. So, due to the lack of active weather in the region today, I will wait until 11.30 a.m. to do another update/post. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that’s the weather! Keep checking back for updates because I’ll have them for you as always.

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.