GREAT LAKES WEATHER: Straight Forward

26 February 2012

Straight Forward

Weather across the region is going to be calm and clear for the day as a high pressure just off to our south and east dominates. This high pressure however is going to slowly drift eastward as the day progresses, but it will maintain its dominance for the majority of the overnight. A low pressure system over in the northern Plains is making itself known this morning with winter storm warnings posted all up and down the state of North Dakota. This low pressure however isn't going to give us any of that wintry weather as it will stay off to our north.

This low pressure system however does have a cold front with it, a moisture deprived front for that matter, and this front will head towards the region during the day tomorrow and tomorrow evening. The thing about this front is that it is going to be a little weird in the sense that it has some charecteristics with it that we'd expect, but it is also lacking a few. Ahead of the front will be some warm air, which will put us once again above normal temperatures tomorrow, but the skies will remain fairly clear and calm. Once the front passes through we're going to see some cooler temperatures return to the region as another high pressure builds up in the region. This front isn't going to bring any precip with it, save for a few possible flakes in the Detroit and Buffalo areas as the system passes to the north. I didn't mention that in the forecasts because the chances are so small, but just be mindful that a stray flurry could occur during the afternoon tomorrow as that front passes.

Weather looks calm once again for the day Tuesday, but that calm weather will not last for long. Another low pressure system is going to develop in the Plains and this one will be stronger than the one that we'll see tomorrow...however it is going to take the wrong course once again and give us rain in the region. The system will arrive on Wednesday as that second high pulls out of the region. The low will drag a warm front into the region, allowing for more rain showers and such to develop throughout the region during the afternoon on Wednesday and especially overnight on Wednesday.

Rain showers will continue in the region throughout the day Thursday, but then some cooler air will seep in on the backside of this low pressure. This will allow for some of those lingering rain showers to mix out with snow, however the snow showers that do occur will be light and exiting the region in a timely manner which means that accumulations more than likely won't really happen.

A little lake effect snow event could develop in the eastern half of the region on the backside of this system, however the temperatures aren't going to be very supportive of accumulations so further forecast will have to be made with this system.

Otherwise, a rather straight forward and somewhat easy (knock on wood) forecast. This will be the only update for the day today, but I'll have more coming up tomorrow morning starting at 4.30 a.m. But for now, I am Timmy Albertson and that's the weather!

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Wednesday forecast

Cleveland: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the mid 40's with overnight lows in the mid 30's. Winds NW at 5-10 mph, shifting to the SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Erie: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows in the low to mid 30's. Winds W-WNW at 5-10 mph, shifting to SE at 10-15 mph this evening.
Toledo: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and overnight. Highs in the lower 40's with overnight lows around 40°. Winds SW at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph, then shifting to SW at 10-15 mph this evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KIWX&prod=n0r&bkgr=black&endDate=20110419&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to regional radar.

Extended forecasts (made at 8.07 wednesday)

CLEVELAND
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the mid morning and then rain showers likely after noon. Highs in the lower 50’s. Winds S at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the early evening, then becoming scattered before midnight and mixing with snow. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then scattered snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. Accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the evening and then lessening up after midnight. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

ERIE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers developing in the late afternoon. Highs in the upper 40’s. Winds SE at 15-20 mph with gusts of 30 mph possible by the late afternoon.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the evening, then becoming scattered and mixing with snow after midnight. Scattered snow showers possible towards sunrise. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30’s. New accumulations around an inch or two possible. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely in the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with lake effect snow showers likely throughout the night. New accumulations around an inch or two likely. Lows around 30°. Winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.

FORT WAYNE
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely throughout the morning and early afternoon. Rain showers becoming scattered in the late afternoon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph likely.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers likely in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening and becoming all snow before midnight. Scattered snow showers possible overnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds W-WNW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the day. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers and flurries possible in the evening, otherwise lingering flurries after midnight with a low in the mid to upper 20’s. Winds NW at 20-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph likely.

TOLEDO
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing in the early morning, then rain showers by noon. Highs around 50°. Winds S-SW at 15-20 mph with gusts of 35 mph possible.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with rain showers becoming scattered in the early evening, then mixing with snow in the evening. Scattered snow showers possible after midnight. Lows in the lower 30’s. Winds becoming W at 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph possible after midnight.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers likely in the morning, then lingering scattered snow showers and flurries possible throughout the afternoon. Highs in the lower 30’s. Winds NW at 25-30 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely by the late afternoon.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries possible throughout the overnight. Lows in the mid 20’s. Winds NW at 25-35 mph with gusts of 45 mph likely.